Hayward makes good points. However (I just love that word!), consider the following.
Bush is very popular. We are in a war (admittedly a strange one, but one is reminded of it everyday in some way). The economy, although wobbly, has not only not tanked but the news has been getting better the last three weeks. The Democrats haven’t been able to pull out any issue (war, Iraq, economy, corporate corruption, etc.) that had sufficient meat and national breadth which could have been used to focus on as an enduring theme. They have had less money to spend. And last, it is now being reported that that this year’s turnout may be the lowest in a non-presidential election in circa sixty years. A lower turnout hurts Democrats more. And because Bush is campaigning hard in strategically based locations and he is sending other big guns out (including his wife to Minnesota) to do the same, and because he is truly popular, his involvement might mean as much as three points in key races. In other words, GOP turnout will be abnormally high. And, I repeat a point made yesterday: the Democrats seem to be worried and scrambling more than they ought to be. Yet, having said all that, I admit that the critical Senate races will be close. The House will not be.