As readers know, Schramm, Hayward and I will be offering our election predictions on Monday, with the one who gets closest to the actual outcome receiving the honor and accolades appropriate to a member of the pundit-class, and all others receiving ignominy and shame. Schramm and Hayward have both given previews of their predictions. Both have mentioned the turnaround in the economy, and suggested that this will help the Republicans.
Those who know me will not be shocked to hear that I have a more cynical view. I am afraid that the economic recovery is not resonating sufficiently to provide a boost for the President yet. Remember, the economy was recovering prior to the ’92 defeat of Bush the elder, yet people still believed that it was the economy stupid. Admittedly, there are differences. Bush the elder ran a lackluster campaign, and the economy was the issue. But don’t underestimate the fact that many Democrats are still running with an emphasis on the economy, despite the fact that we are in a growth period.
Don’t get me wrong, while I am a pessimist, I think that there are several races where Republicans will pull rabbits out of the electoral hats. More on that Monday . . . .