A reader (PChuck) thinks I’m too optimistic about Terrell winning in Louisiana. Here is why, briefly, I think Landrieu cannot win. There has to be at least a 25% turnout of Black voters, and she must get 90% of them. (The highest black voter turnout recorded in LA was in 1991 when David Duke ran for governor, and that was only 26%.) And she has to get at least 33% of the white votes. I don’t think she will do either, in the end. Black voters are utterly unenthusiastic about her. It is clear from press reports that Black Demo leaders are very worried. The white liberal/moderate vote might go her way, but that’s only about 30% of white voters. I don’t think she is going to do any better among white voters than any other Demo Senate candidates in other Southern states have in the November election. She needs to make a large inroad of more conservative white voters and she will not for two big reasons: 1) Bush’s support of Terrell and 2) Terrell up front anti-abortion stance. And last, I don’t think that the GOP’s get out the vote effort should be underestimated (and the Demos affort is almost always overestimated). Furthermore, the momentum has been on Terrell’s side for the last two weeks of the campaign; that is deadly for an incumbent. It might be close (say 51-49%) but I doubt it. I predict it will be more like 53-47%. There, I’ve stuck my neck out. Thanks for your comment Chuck.