Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Why Landrieu Will Lose

A reader (PChuck) thinks I’m too optimistic about Terrell winning in Louisiana. Here is why, briefly, I think Landrieu cannot win. There has to be at least a 25% turnout of Black voters, and she must get 90% of them. (The highest black voter turnout recorded in LA was in 1991 when David Duke ran for governor, and that was only 26%.) And she has to get at least 33% of the white votes. I don’t think she will do either, in the end. Black voters are utterly unenthusiastic about her. It is clear from press reports that Black Demo leaders are very worried. The white liberal/moderate vote might go her way, but that’s only about 30% of white voters. I don’t think she is going to do any better among white voters than any other Demo Senate candidates in other Southern states have in the November election. She needs to make a large inroad of more conservative white voters and she will not for two big reasons: 1) Bush’s support of Terrell and 2) Terrell up front anti-abortion stance. And last, I don’t think that the GOP’s get out the vote effort should be underestimated (and the Demos affort is almost always overestimated). Furthermore, the momentum has been on Terrell’s side for the last two weeks of the campaign; that is deadly for an incumbent. It might be close (say 51-49%) but I doubt it. I predict it will be more like 53-47%. There, I’ve stuck my neck out. Thanks for your comment Chuck.

Discussions - 2 Comments

Sorry for the math lesson. its the CPA in me I cant help it. If blacks make up 25% of cast ballots( different than turnout but I know what you meant) and 90% of blacks vote Landrieu and 35% of all others vote Landrieu the numbers would be 48.75% Landrieu 51.25% Terrell.

So she need to get more than 35% of white voters, blacks need to be more than 25% of the voting block or she needs close to 100% of blacks ( at about 25% black vote percetage). Getting more than 90% of any groups seems to be an impossible dream and No polls I saw gave her more than around 31% of white voters. So if the busses are rolling up to polling places in New Orleans, it could be an early sign than Landrieu pulls out a squeaker. If blacks stay home ( more likely from the tepid leadership support) she goes down, maybe big time.

I hate to say I told you so... I am a die-hard Republican and it pains me to see Landrieu as the winner. I used to live in N.O., and it is a politically strange place. The black vote hurt as well as some of the rural parishes were unexpectedly close.

Landrieu is a southern version of Senator Patty Murray of Washington State; albeit, Landrieu votes morewith President Bush than Murray. They give women legislators a bad name.

Saturday night I followed the results on Freerepublic.com and the Conservative Journal and it was certainly interesting seeing the results coming in. Terrell had that 52% to 51% lead but Orleans Parish was holding out their results until the end.

P.S. Although I never bet against my team, I should have bet Peter a Christmas Turducken on the results.

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