Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Azores Press Conference

I didn’t think there was too much to the press conference (here is the transcript)
itself; although not much new was said, it did show resolve. The meaning of it will revolve around this sentence from President Bush: "Tomorrow’s the day that we will determine whether or not diplomacy can work." The question is, what does this mean? Does it mean that all the phone conversations over the last week (and those that took place today or tonight) will have born some fruit? If we think that we will have at least nine votes in the Security Council in favor of some resolution (and disregarding the possibility of a French veto) that might lead to war but give Saddam a few days to surrender, then we will have the vote. If we don’t think we have such a majority then we will not have the vote and, most probably, announce--as early as Monday night--that we will give Saddam a few days to leave (this will also allow the press, inspectors, et al, to leave), before we go in. There is a remote possibility that the French will push for a compromise of sorts at the last minute--give Saddam, say, two weeks--but I don’t think this will be taken seriously because there is no trust left. If President Bush delays any longer than one week, I believe he will have made a grievious mistake. So far, in my opinion--despite the diplomatic difficulties of the last two weeks--the administration has not yet made any strategic mistakes. War, therefore should take place sometime between March 21st to March 25th.

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