NBC conducted a poll on Sunday night that confirms two important things: 72% said that California was headed down the wrong track, and 59% said they would vote to recall Davis. Arnold came in at 31%, and Bustamente trailed badly at 18%. First, it seems to me perfectly clear that Davis is finished and, even though he may not accept it, certainly other Demos (including Bustamente) will. Therefore, it is likely that Davis will be pushed to resign, therefore not only making Bustamante governor (which isn’t worth very much), but clearing the way for him to fight a clearer campaign on his own behalf (rather than arguing that people should come to polls to both vote against the recall, and to vote for him in case the recall fails). I see no reason why this shouldn’t happen. Second, both the Demos and the press will press Arnold to start making a catalogue of policy issues, hoping that with each particlat stance he will alienate part of his constituency. They have already started this process. But they don’t understand that people will vote for Arnold because he is an outsider (with 100% name recognition) and in general a good guy. You can already see part of this forming regarding his support of Proposition 187 in 1994 His opponents are calling it "anti-immigration."
See this Sacramento Bee on the start of this attack. It won’t work. It will remind conservatives that Arnold is not simply a liberal. But see John Fund’s thoughtful commentary wherein he cautions that Arnold has some serious obstacles to overcome.