Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Demos in N.H. and elsewhere

Here is the latest Zogby tracking poll, and the ARG tracking poll.
And here is
Gallup
.

They are roughly the same. Kerry is ahead, by how much is in dispute (18 points, or 12, or 8), but the spot for second between Dean, Edwards and Clark is quite close in some of them. Dean’s slide seems to have stopped and I sense that he may be moving up a bit; if this true than the real war is for third place. Clark continues to slip. I wouldn’t be shocked if Lieberman ended up doing better than Clark. Edwards seems to be moving up, but slowly. If he c ame in third in NH, that would serve him well (after all, Kerry, Dean and Liberman are from the neighborhood). In the meantime, Kerry is now in second place in South Carolina (just behind Edwards), having jumped over 10 points there since Iowa. And Kerry, who was in fifth the day before Iowa, is now in the lead by 2 points in Arizona; he is 2 points ahead of Clark and 5 points ahead of Dean. The two that are in most danger in NH are Clark and Lieberman, in my opinion. Although I must admit that Kerry is in some danger if he doesn’t live up to expectations. What is that? I don’t know, perhaps the 30% mark; anything below that could seem to hurt him in So. Carolina and beyond.

Discussions - 2 Comments

What’s your take on the recent Newsweek poll indicating that Kerry would be ahead of Bush in a head-to-head match up? The timing is perfect for Kerry (perhaps a little too perfect): it will probably serve to give him a boost in New Hampshire.

Newsweek polls have a reputation for being off, sometimes way off. I vaguely recollect that back in 1984 for a while they had Mondale up against Reagan after the Demno convention. No other poll has such figures on a match-up between Kerry and Bush. Also, I don’t think this is bad, it would be good if the thing seemed quite close; it would be to the GOP’s advantage. They’ll work harder, etc. In the end--catastropher aside--I think Bush will win.

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