Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Predictions for 2004

My predictions for 2004.

1. Brittany Spears will not be married again in 2004.
2. It will be (finally) discovered that Michael Jackson is not running on all cylinders.
3. Gephard will win in Iowa.
4. Bush will carry Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico, Iowa, and Oregon in November.
5. One way or the other Wesley Clark will be on the Democratic ticket.
6. Dick Cheney will not (I regret) be on the GOP ticket.
7. Bush will win the election by between 8 and 15 points, if Dean is the nominee.
8. The GOP will have a net gain of five Senate seats, and eight House seats, if Dean is the nominee.
9. The Cleveland Indians and the Browns will do very well, but not as well as the Cavaliers.
10. Something interesting and surprising having to do with either carbon and/or water will be found on Mars.
11. Steve Hayward will finish another book.
12. De-stabilization will pick up speed in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
13. India will continue to prosper and will become an even closer ally of the U.S.
14. Poland will continue to position itself as spokesman for the New Europe.
15. Benjamin Netanyahu will become PM of Israel.
16. Bin Laden will be captured.

Discussions - 8 Comments

Bush won’t carry Oregon, but he will carry all the other states mentioned. OBL will be captured this summer.

pchuck:

Why don’t you think Bush will carry Oregon? He almost won it in 2000, and on my frequent visits there I am always impressed at how much stronger Republicans are in Oregon than California, which is/was supposedly Reagan Country.

Peter:

I finished the next book today, as a matter of fact, and even hand delivered it to the publisher. (That’s writing one, not reading one, in case Starbuck is wondering. . .)

the caveliers are terrible. Peter, stay out of sports it cast doubt on your on your impeccable intellect.

Steve, I lived in Portland in the 1990’s. I’ve been back and the city is terrible leftist.


Too many leftist in Multnomah and Lane counties. I know the legislature is R, but statewide it is too liberal. Tis a pity.

"Dick Cheney will not (I regret) be on the GOP ticket."

Hmm... interesting, as this is very important. Who will face Hillary in 2008? Who is the up and coming star in the post Bush 43 era? Give Bush his landslide next year, and then ask "Who’s next?"

Remember how disappointed we all were with Bush 41, Reagan successor? Will history repeat with a disppointment from Bush 43? Do you all think that GW is seriously thinkin’ about this?

How about John Breaux? :)

To pchuck:

While I do not share some of the optimism, Oregon is winnable for Bush. Gore won Oregon by less than 7000 votes in 2000. The counties you mentioned grossly favored Gore in 2000-take away both counties and Bush easily wins Oregon-but if Bush can even reasonably reduce the margin in those counties it is not inconceivable that he could win Oregon.

Lane- Gore by 17,007

Multnomah- Gore by 104,764

It seems to me that Bush could trim these margins.

The real problem for Bush is Cook County, Illinois where Gore won by more than the total margin of victory in 2000.

Cook County- Gore by 646,005
All votes- Gore by 536,179

You be the judge!!

Regarding the Cavaliers, I’m guessing that a new team can be built around one excellent player.

Re: Cheney off the ticket in 2004. Why not have Cheney stay on thru the election, and then let him bow out mid-term or so (for age or health reasons)? This allows the president to keep a popular VP, as well as to groom a potential successor for the 2008 election. The 25th Amendment authorizes the president to nominate a VP in case of a vacancy "who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority of both Houses of Congress." Thus the Democrats would pose no threat to derail whomever Bush (and fellow Republicans) would consider worthy of the post, and the likely frontrunner for the 2008 presidential nomination.

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