Responding to Peter, below: I do think LBJ helped JFK, but I agree with most of the rest of his commentary. So, Peter, whom would you bet on? I was personally impressed by Bob Kerrey, whom I met at the U.S. Air Force Academy during a talk he gave there, but I don’t see him helping the ticket, unless a certain gravitas does the trick. (He was rather silly on the 9/11 Commission, don’t you think?) I guess he wouldn’t go back to Joe Lieberman, even based on your arguments about foreign policy. He would probably need to pick a Protestant, assuming Bush doesn’t switch nominees. (Danforth, if he does switch?) Your logic would likely exclude a woman.

Modifying your analysis, I think the election will be more about security, rather than foreign policy. Dem tickets require a southerner. And that bodes well for the dull, predictable Gephardt, despite his St. Louis roots. (Breaux-- too much corruption in Louisiana, but it’s possible. Nunn-- too conservative for the party, even one desperate for victory.)

If it’s a surprise, it will be a surprise to me, too-- e.g., Senator Bayh of Indiana, who could help in the battle for Ohio.

What I fear Bush is undergoing is a combination of Carterization and LBJization, though the Iraq policy cannot yet be dismissed as a failure. The President has not assured us that he knows what our foreign policy is about, even with sovereignty transferred to the Iraqis.

Reagan gave the country confidence that we would have a decisively different orientation, despite his lack of foreign policy experience. The vision was assuring.

Update:

As of Monday, 9:30 p.m., Pacific Time, I’d bet a dollar Kerry picks Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, based on Kerry’s flying to Indianapolis following his early morning rally in Pittsburgh, where it is expected he will announce his VP selection. Already designated as his running mate’s political director is, according to the New York Times, "Linda L. Moore, who was President Bill Clinton’s deputy political director and then Senator Bayh’s deputy chief of staff. She was a field director at the Democratic Leadership Council in the early 1990’s."