Lucas Morel had the following comment on polls:
"Check me on this, but I believe that same poll showed that more respondents (i.e., a plurality, though not a majority) believed Bush would win the election than Kerry would. For what it’s worth, this question (Who do you think will win? not Who do you think you will vote for?) seems to provide a more reliable prediction of the actual winner of elections. In the fall of 2000, a prominent pollster visited a government class at my university and asked students, In my next poll, what one question should I ask people to help me predict the winner of the presidential election? After he scrutinized several suggestions, I said he should ask, Who do you think will win? He gave it short shrift by replying, Naw, I already asked that one, and the result was fifty-fifty. QED."
He is right, of course. FOX News Poll, of likely voters (which shows Kerry leading Bush by one point) says this: "A 43 percent plurality believes President Bush will win in November while just over a third (35 percent) believe Kerry will win. Republicans are more confident, with 72 percent saying Bush will be re-elected compared to 62 percent of Democrats who believe Kerry will prevail.
Just under half of voters (48 percent) say they would rather have Laura Bush than Teresa Heinz Kerry (33 percent) as first lady of the United States."