USA Today article on the Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll. And this is the detail. The short of it this: Bush leads Kerry by 8 points among likely voters, and 11 points among registered voters. Perhaps mosre important is that in almost every category Bush leads. Examples: Bushs job approval is now 54%; Bush has a 27% edge on handling terrorism; Bush has a 6% edge on handling the economy; a 52% majority says Bush has a clear plan for handling Iraq; a 63% majority says Kerry does not.
No deep thinking is required here. Kerry has run the worst campaign in memory; he is not a candidate who can get the American people to like him or trust him. His only opportunities left are two: Bush has to collapse in the first debate (the second two dont matter, in my view), or the economy or Iraq has to collapse in the next three weeks. The only other event that could work in Kerrys favor is a terror attack before the election. I say it theoretically could work in his favor, but even that wouldnt because Bush is trusted more, and therefore wouldnt be held responsible. One last quick thought. Women. Bush leads Kerry among female voters (by 2 points). This is a massive fact, now starting to be noticed. The so-called gender gap, soccer moms, and all that silliness, is over. War and security is what is on the mind of married women, especially those with children. I think the barbaric attacks on the Russian school nailed it. Women (especially) were appalled. Kerry cant get those voters back. Kerry needs to be remarkable in the first debate. He has to turn people in his direction. I dont think he is capable of doing it. I think what you see is what he is, and he is very limited. It will end in a rout.