People are pestering me. Have I changed my mind about the election? Do I still think Bush is going to win? Etc. They are beginning to panic, I expect in part because of the many tracking polls they have seen, and others which are either connfusing or are spun by TV anchors to make it seem that there is a movement toward Kerry. There is no movement toward Kerry! Kerry does not have momentum. I have not changed my mind, and, just to be perfectly clear, let me reiterate the following: Bush will win. Although Kerry will probably take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, that will be as close as he is going to get. Bush will win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa and the rest (New Mexico, New Hampshire, Hawaii, will not matter). So, stop calling me. I have to finish grading some papers!
Speaking of your predictions, you’ve undercounted your GOP gain for the Senate. If Burr wins, that will be a GOP gain, meaning your prediction is +4, not +3. Same with Moser. :)
I agree with you. Republican turnout will be the post election story. Angry silent majority shows up in force and carries Bush to an easy victory. People are just flat sick of hearing the President called a liar and will put a lick on the *******.
I would give Bush the nod in Minnesota before Wisconsin based on latest polls from Mason Dixon but I really think its a blow out and all the nervous energy was just that.
Gary, I agree with most of that, but there is no way that "the silent majority shows up" will be the story. Looking for excuses, as they always do, the media will claim that the Democrats "did not do enough to mobilize their base," and the party hierarchy will blame minorities for not turning out enough votes. Isn’t that what they did in 2002? In 2000? Al Gore got more total votes than any Democrat to ever run, except for Lyndon Johnson, and they still tried to pass off the close tally by alleging that they just didn’t turn out as many people as they "could have." Yeah Right.
Here’s my suggestion to the media/DNC, since they are basically the same thing anyway. Do some deep, introspective thinking. Ask yourself why you chose Nancy Pelosi as your leader in the house, instead of someone more moderate. Ask why you let the tone of the primary be set by Howard Dean. Ask why you relied on unaccountable extremist groups like never-going-to-moveon.org to make cheap and tawdry "Bush is Hitler attacks" insteads of talking about real issues. Think about the similarities between Michael Moore’s comments on those on the new Bin Laden tape.
There is a deep cultural divide in America today. Kerry will lose, like so many of his allies did in 2002, because he is on the wrong side of that divide. Perhaps this time the Democratic Party will learn its lesson and start choosing leaders less representative of the left-wing activists, and more representative of the country as a whole.
Prodictions:
- widespread fraud narrowing popular vote.
- offset by volunteer GOTV for pubs.
- eventually documented and publicized by new media.
- leading to votor registration and voting reform.
- however, pubs still win in a landslide.
- dems get ~150 electoral votes +/-15.