just released a poll and there is some very weird stuff in it. Not so weird is Bush leading Kerry nationally, 49-47%. And all these are weird: Kerry leads Bush in Ohio by 4%, in Florida by 3%, in Minnesota by 8%; Bush leads Kerry in Wisconsin by 8%, in Iowa by 2%, and in Pennsylvania by 4%. What does one say? Well, it is possible that the margin of victory (for either, I guess) is going to be much larger than we have been thinking. Or, polls may just be without value altogether. Pick one.
Also note that the CBS/New York Times poll is out and they have it Bush over Kerry, 49-46%. Also note that 49% of the people polled think that Bush will win, while only 33% think that Kerry will win. And Pew Research has it Bush over Kerry, 48-45%, among likely voters. Also note this: "Pew’s final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin."