CNN/Gallup
just released a poll and there is some very weird stuff in it. Not so weird is Bush leading Kerry nationally, 49-47%. And all these are weird: Kerry leads Bush in Ohio by 4%, in Florida by 3%, in Minnesota by 8%; Bush leads Kerry in Wisconsin by 8%, in Iowa by 2%, and in Pennsylvania by 4%. What does one say? Well, it is possible that the margin of victory (for either, I guess) is going to be much larger than we have been thinking. Or, polls may just be without value altogether. Pick one.
Also note that the CBS/New York Times poll is out and they have it Bush over Kerry, 49-46%. Also note that 49% of the people polled think that Bush will win, while only 33% think that Kerry will win. And Pew Research has it Bush over Kerry, 48-45%, among likely voters. Also note this: "Pew’s final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin."
The MSM have a vested interest in keeping the polls close. If the polls showed that Bush was ahead 60% - 40%, no one would tune in the the evening news to find out what is happening, and now one would buy a newspaper to find out what happened yesterday. The MSM thus, even if they weren’t already biased toward the Democrat (I said BIAS, not CONSPIRACY) have a great financial incentive to tilt the news coverage in order to drive the polls toward the middle. They also have a strong incentive to meddle directly with the poll. I don’t know how they can do that, but I suppose that if you offer a pollster enough money, they’ll shift their assumptions in the direction you ask. So when I saw Bush’s big lead in September suddenly vanish overnight when the pollsters "adjusted" their assumptions about turnout, I didn’t see a conspiracy to help Kerry, I saw a conspiracy to keep the race close.
As a result, I predict one of two future trends: either the MSM will continue to manipulate the polls and I will spend the rest of my life seeing every Presidential election "too close to call" throughout the race, or the ability of the non-traditional media (the bloggers) to do a better job of calling the race will embarrass them into being less manipulative with the polls. The good thing about that prediction is that I get to claim I’m right no matter what happens in the next election!
If Bush blows out Kerry as many conservative bloggers are predicting, I will be even more firmly convinced that the polls are being directly manipulated to keep the race looking artificially tight. Personally, I expect Kerry to win because what the Democrats have lacked in campaign strategy, they have made up for in organized voter fraud.
I think the polls lately are just a joke. All we can do is wait, and hope, and pray for Election Day.
This is all just ratings hype. It’s not surprising that the networks all predict it will be so close. You can’t have those people watching sitcoms all night instead.
The only hope is a total Bush blowout. I went to the rally in Tampa and took quite a few pics 10/31/04 Legions Field Tampa, FL Bush Rally Photo Essay
The only hope is a total Bush blowout. I went to the rally in Tampa and took quite a few pics 10/31/04 Legions Field Tampa, FL Bush Rally Photo Essay