The Mystery Pollster claims that--appearances to the contrary notwithstanding--the Ohio polls are consistent if you consider, he argues, what he calls the incumbent rule: He claims that because Bush’s numbers (47 or 46% in five polls) are consistent, the variation is in the Kerry, Nader, or undecided numbers. In short, if these numbers for Bush true and if the incumbent rule is true, the mystery pollster claims that Bush is headed for defeat. Big ifs, of course. But this is pretty clear stuff, even if you don’t agree with it, it is still worth reading.