Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Overlooked Battleground?

No one is listing Oregon among the battleground states, but I’ve just seen a poll out of Oregon showing Bush with a 5 point lead (remember that Gore won Oregon very narrowly in 2000).

Moreover, Oregon has a defense of marriage initiative on the ballot, since this is another state where gay marriage has been attempted by political fiat. The gay rights organizations think Oregon is the one state they night defeat such an initiative, and is outspending the initiative proponents by a large margin. But the Riley poll I’ve seen shows the initiative ahead with 57% saying they will vote yes.

Discussions - 1 Comment

As much as I would like to think otherwise, it will take a minor miracle for Bush to win Oregon.

Like it’s Northern neighbor Washington State, there are essentially two Oregons: the rural Eastern half of the state and the major cities to the West. While Bush does well in the rural sections of the state which tend to run fairly conservative, it is the heavy population centers like Portland, Salem and Eugene that drive the state. Bush would almost have to break even in these three cities to pull off a victory there, and given their liberal voting record I just can’t see it happening.

It’s a nice dream, though.

Cheers,
-Nathan

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