Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Show time!

A couple of pieces in the Washington Post merit a mention this morning. One claims that the electoral map has expanded, that a few more states are back on the table. While this

expansion
of the electoral map--with Hawaii, Arkansas, and West Virginia now being back in play--may be temporary, it may also mean something, the Post just doesn’t know what. Well, it means that the election will be really, really, really, close. Yup, that’s very thoughtful stuff. Good analysis! Except, of course, it is wrong. And then there is this calculus that claims to show 33 different possible combinations in which the Electoral College could come out in a tie! Sure, this is fun stuff, but politics is not mathematics. The election, as you know, will not be close, but I send this stuff your way because this gives the Kerry campaign something to talk about, rather than focus on their funk. Quick ads based on a set-up NY Times headline not based on fact does not a campaign make. It doesn’t matter what Kerry does during the last few days, he will not get more than about 47% of the vote nationwide and will end up losing the Electoral College by between 50 and 60 votes. Spend the last few days of the campaign watching them--and the MSM--spin and squirm. It’s show time, folks!

Discussions - 5 Comments

Peter, I hope you are correct.

My personal opinion is that it is extremely difficult to defeat a sitting President. Sure Clinton did it to G.H.W. Bush, but the Cold War was over and Clinton was a pretty good politican. Sure Reagan beat Carter, but in 1979 Carter’s approval ratings were 13% at one point. In addition, interest rates where what? 17% - 20% and there was this thing called stagflation. For goodness sake, Gerald Ford almost won and he was the party of Watergate in 1976. It is also difficult for a sitting senator to win and it is hard for a liberal from Massachusetts to win. Stranger things have happened but that is my story and I’m sticking to it.

I also don’t think there are really too many undecided voters out there.

I may make that the last blog entry I read until Tuesday. I hope you’re right. The polls look really tight so it’s hard to share that enthusiasm.

I’ll agree that it sounds too good to be true, but I’ll also say this: in 2002, when this blog was in its infancy, a few of us made predictions about how that election would turn out. Peter’s predictions were the most optimistic by far, so much so that I laughed when I saw them. But when the results came in on Election Night, virtually every race came in as he predicted. So when he says things will work out fine this time around, I’m inclined to believe him.

John, I was looking at web sites and Lexis-Nexis, as well as Westlaw/Westnews from late October and early Novemeber from 2002 and 2000 just to get a feel of the election chatter. It was interesting and you could understand a lot of the uncertainty and posturing/spinning from both sides. Very few saw the victories in 2002.

The Midwest is BUSH COUNTRY.....Besides the LEFT COAST...I do not think Kerry is liked by most of America. Ohio.....is that picture seared in your mind.....you know the Goose Hunter Halloween Get Up!

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