The Horserace Blog has a very clear explanation of the black vote and the Democratic Party. Also note the very clear and broader explanation of how and why the Democratic Party is without a base. He maintains, and I agree (although the point can be refined) that Kerry will lose the election for lack of black and Catholic support. It will not stretch your imagination to see what a bind the Demos are in after they lose this election: they stand for nothing (compared to their past) and have a base only in those states (California, Illinois, e.g.), where the GOP is incompetent or corrupt. I don’t know this guy, but he is good. Read it.