Ignore the polls. Here’s why the planets are coming into alignment for a solid Bush victory.
First, the victory of the conservative party in Australia by an unexpectedly large margin three weeks ago. I know--they say Iraq wasn’t an issue, but just imagine what the New York Times would have said if Howard had been defeated. Seems like a good omen.
Last week Castro falls ass-over-tea kettle on his face, looking remarkably like Saddam’s statute being toppled in Baghdad last year. Coincidence?
Now we see Yassir Arafat being rushed to a Paris hospital for an "undisclosed" mystery ailment. But did you see his photo yesterday? To paraphrase Monty Python’s parrot sketch, we’re looking at a soon-to-be ex-Arafat.
And then there are the Kerry factors: Americans are not going to elect a guy who owns a powerboat named "Scaramouche," or who wears a flower-power zipper-pull on his ski jacket.
I just read an interesting piece by an academic/political pollster entitled "The Scoop on Polls". He went into the methodology behind polling, essentially he said that Gallup, Time and Battleground are the best polls with the best methodology. He said Gallup is the gold standard.
The Scoop on Polls
And let’s not forget Kerry trading a Red Sox WS win for his presidency. Either the fates (a) flipped a coin and after 90 years it finally came up heads or (b) knew a great offer when they saw one. Occam’s razor says (b), methinks.
That’s also why the Astros didn’t make it -- sticking it to kerry because of his "trade" was more fun than sticking it to the Yankee’s because of their stupidity in sending two of their pitchers to the Astros.
I love the fact that Kerry’s powerboat is named Scaramouche. Dictionary dot com defines "Scaramouche" as a boastful coward or buffoon. A very fitting label