Predictions
Posted by Peter W. Schramm
RealClearPolitics
has a nice list of how the pundits are predicting the outcome (Bill Kristol, Mark Shields, et al). John Moser and my predictions, made on Friday.
9:08 AM / November 1, 2004
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Here is what I emailed my two sections of American National Government today:
My prediction, which is worth as much and as little as anyone else’s thus far (given the statistical dead heat in key "battleground" states like Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, New Mexico, etc.) is as follows:
Bush will win 287 to Kerry’s 251 BUT ONLY if he wins Ohio and Florida, among other key states.
My breakdown is as follows:
Bush States (32 total): AK (3), HI (4), NV (5), ID (4), UT (5), AZ (10), MT (3), WY (3), CO (9), NM (5), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), MO (11), AR (6), LA (9), IN (11), KY (8), TN (11), MS (6), AL (9), OH (20), WV (5), VA (13), NC (15), SC (8), GA (15), FL (27), and NH (4).
Kerry States (18 total plus D.C.): WA (11), OR (7), CA (55), MN (10), IA (7), WI (10), IL (21), MI (17), PA (21), NY (31), ME (4), VT (3), MA (12), RI (4), CT (7), NJ (15), DE (3), MD (10), and DC (3).
Like I said, several of these are pure guesses based on poll trends, the previous presidential election outcome, and just plain hunches. I have Kerry getting Iowa but Bush getting Hawaii; Bush getting New Hampshire but Kerry getting Wisconsin. Will the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort prove to be the determining factor, or will the war on terrorism (Bush has always outpolled Kerry on this question) coupled with Kerry’s inability to draw more of the undecideds before now (which means folks who don’t like Bush but aren’t thrilled with the alternatives will simply stay home this time around) make the difference?
As for the popular vote, I have no idea, nor do I care all that much, given that our federal system for electing the president was never intended to reflect the popular vote nor has the system for allotting electoral votes (namely, "winner-take-all" electoral votes going to the plurality winner of the popular state votes in all states but Maine and Nebraska). Hence the candidates do not campaign so as to drive their popular vote up, which means its significance pales in comparison to how well they do state-by-state rather than as a national collective.