CNN
has the exit polls. There’s some very interesting stuff in it. I know that these figures are not realiable (they are by definition imperfect, but that’s all we’ll ever have; and everyone will use these figures). Besides, it’s the trend you are looking for, not whether or not he took 52% or 51% of the Catholic vote, for example. But for now just take note of this regarding the Latino vote:
Nationally he got 44% of the Latino vote (9% more than in 2000). In New Mexico his precentage grew by 12%, in Texas by 16%, in California by 4%. And if that is not interesting enough, note that he increased his female vote by 5%, the black vote by 2%, and the Jewish vote by 6%. Now pretend you are a Democrat strategist. Rough weekend.
Does my party still have strategists?
No, Matt, you have trial lawyers, Nancy Pelosi, and Terry McAuliffe (also known in GOP circles as "God’s special gift to the Republican Party").
But if you’re surfing to NLT maybe you’re thinking of switching? Feel free to c’mon over to the bright side of The Force, Matt! We Pubbies love ex-Dems who are into the full-tilt boogie for truth, justice, and the defense of the American Way at home and abroad.
And if it’s "strategery" you like, we got the Lone Star Machiavel his own self, Karl "The Architect" Rove!
That’s a good question. Look to the Democratic Leadership Council and, maybe, Ruy Teixeria.
Contrary to the common wisdom of the MainStreamMedia©, the Democrat party, P.Diddy, Michael Moore & John Kerry, the youth vote did not turn out in this election, even after much stroking, free underwear, and Paris Hilton threatening them to "Vote or Die" (presumably by some STD?). With the advent of Universal Internet Voting upon us, we here at docweasel.com have come up with a format that will guarantee more youth participation in the 2008 election by using an interface that is familiar and popular with the kids today.
Youth Vote
OK, serious Dem strategy post:
The Dems realize they’ll never crack the South again. Therefore, their hopes will turn to efforts to "Californicate" the Mountain states--especially AZ, NV, NM, and CO--while frantically defending their endangered outworks they currently hold in the Upper Midwest (WI in particular has been razor-thin for 2 prez elections running now, and is trending GOP).
This "Californication" thesis, BTW, is in a nutshell what that Texeira guy (how DO you pronounce his name, BTW?) is all about, though of course he cheers for it and doesn’t use my preferred pejorative term for it (he likes to talk about "ideopolises" of urban liberals who like bike paths and gay marriage).
Could it work? Well, CA used to be a GOP bastion, remember? And IL was long a swing state. Now both a deepest blue. And a bunch of those GOP Mountain states have small populations that it wouldn’t take that many "blue" migrants to tip.
And then there’s immigration, which has historically been good for the Democrats. OTOH, Bush and Rove seem to have made serious inroads with Hispanics, Jews, women, and even blacks. If these prove sustainable, that changes a lot, and not in the Dems favor.
Another Dem to watch: Mark Warner of VA. He’s a guv not a sen (much better launching pad to the Oval Office), and has run and won as a Democrat in VA during the Bush43 years. He’s not a real Southerner, tho (CT Yankee by birth), but keep an eye on him anyway. He has a vast personal fortune (made off cell-phone licensing deals in the go-go early 90s) which could get him started on a nice primary run in 08.
To PJC: Some useful thoughts. But, it seems to me that a revivification of the GOP in California is not impossible, especially with (admittedly imperfect) Gov. Arnold. And, eventually the corrupt Illinois GOP must be changed. I think you are right about Mark Warner. They have to look to the states, and, if they are smart, they know they will have to re-group on that level before they have a chance at the national. Of course, this might take twenty years or so.
If CA is to be flipped back to the Bright Side of The Force (oh consummation most devoutly to be wished!), the groundwork that W and Karl R laid w/ Latinos, blacks, women, and Jews will be a major factor. As for IL, we have absolutely nowhere to go but up (1/4 of a cheer for Alan Keyes, who brought things to this pass).
My guess is they view this as the GOP’s insurance policy against what would otherwise be the effects of immigration (nightmare for my fellow Pubbies & me: imagine AZ and TX in the 2010s going the way of CA in the 1990s).
If they are right, this is incalculable. Literally throughout modern American history, immigration has favored the Dems. If that can be reversed before immigrants reach the 2nd or 3rd generation (the Reagan Dems were the grandchildren of E & S European immigrants, remember) and the GOP can keep winning 40+% Latinos, somewhere in the teens %s among blacks, etc., then it really will be a new day in America.
OTOH, if TX, AZ, & NM fill up w/ Mexicans who worship Bill Richardson the way Irish-Americans worshipped JFK, then we are cooked.
Also, I love Arnold, but am not impressed that he means that much as a party-builder in CA. MA has Romney and MD has Ehrlich; W ran a bit stronger in both states, but they ain’t going red anytime soon. VA has Warner and he was powerless to turn it blue. Don’t see that guv’s party ID means that much for the prez race (remember all those GOP guvs who couldn’t deliver their states for W in ’00?).
Finally, watch Corzine too. Word is he wants to leave the Hill and go be guv of NJ. He’s way rich and also has Midwestern roots--is from a farm in IL. Hillary I expect will soon be getting a tatoo map of IL on one ample calf, with AR on the other. She’ll also probably start toting a handgun and a Bible conspicuously everywhere she goes. It won’t help her much, but oh how the MSM will fall all over itself to spin and puff her new "moderation and Midwesternism" shtick for her! Should be fun to watch.