Posted by Peter W. Schramm
The Ohio Poll (University of Cincinnati) has appeared and finds this: Bush leads Kerry, 50.1 to 49.2% (a statistical dead heat); Voinovich is ahead, 65-35%, while Issue 1 (Constitutional Amendment
on gay marriage) leads 59.2 to 40.8%.
NR is preparing us for the likelihood of bad news.
Take the time tomorrow. Get out the vote. Volunteer, call people, drive, whatever. Get out the vote.
Leave no possibility for remorse (if only I would have ...)
Here in the Dayton area, there seems an even mix of Kerry / Bush signs. Corner demonstrations have one corner of Bush people, another corner for Kerry. The Kerry people seem more verbal. The Bush, more reluctant to come out and declare. I suspect a lot of Bush voters when the curtain closes behind them in the booth.
I also suspect a fair number of these polls reflect the reluctance of Bush voters to declare themselves.
Get out the vote!
I honestly dont know what to make of the polls. Talk about all over the place and being extremely fluid!
I dont think it will be 2000 redux. I think Bush will win. I think he takes OH, FL and NM. He will probably take IA. All the other states will be the same as 2000.
I thought about the polls and I came to the conclusion that most polls are wrong and some polls are right; the trick is determing which ones are which. In any event, we will know sometime tomorrow night (I doubt Wednesday because not much is in play out West with exception of HI).
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