Maybe the most genuinely nonpartisan political analyst we have is Larry Sabato. If anything, he has a microscopic Republican tilt. His careful analysis of all the House races points to a Democratic takeover, and that’s based on a very cautious interpretation of the data he presents. He suggests the possibility of a genuinely "macro" movement in the Democratic direction. Nothing is inevitable about such results of course, and the Republican situation is far from hopeless (Paul!). Larry shows it’s POSSIBLE that Republican losses could be kept to a dozen seats or so. But unfortunately everything has been moving in one direction lately.
Much of the conservative commentariat, desperately seeking confirmation of the old "silent majority" thesis, ignored the fundamental fact of the 2004 election: A hard-left Democrat with a hard-left background came within an inch of being elected president of the United States, against an incumbent, in wartime with a prosperous economy -- even though he was a seriously flawed candidate, the Republicans ran outstanding grassroots campaign, and Bush assiduously cultivated the "independent" soccer moms and bowed time after time to that mentality. This may in some vague sense be a conservative country, but it is one in which millions of people still have a sentimental attachment to the Democratic party, causing them to return to that party with even a very weak excuse. In addition, for all the talk about the new conservative media, the liberals still control the media that matter most, and by far matter most.
We can still keep this election from turning into a disaster, meaning we can still control both houses. But it will take a tightly focused, aggressive campaign that will educate a small, educable sliver of independents about the radicalism of the Democratic party and rekindle the righteous anger of that section of our base that has been focused on Republican failures rather than the Democratic threat to our country’s well-being.
Well, our media is a propaganda machine, and when that machine is generally against you, what should you expect?
This is cynical, but I feel that most people barely care about politics and vote based not on facts, but on feelings or some vague, spun explanation of the facts, which is what the general media provides.
Approximately half of the U.S. population votes, so only half of the U.S. care enough to make their voice heard and out of that half, a large portion, or a significant portion, whatever that number is, votes not according to researched facts, but on gut feelings or on propanda that is passed off as factual news.
And, chuckle, that is my ... gut feeling on this issue.
;)