Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Elephant Graveyard?

Here is the Columbus Dispatch story on this Dispatch poll. Note the absurd numbers: Strickland ahead by 36 points, Brown ahead by 24 points! Am I supposed to roll over and pretend that conducting this kind of polling is what politics is all about? I will not do it. This is silly. While it is possible (anything is possible) that the GOP will lose by huge margins both in Ohio and nationally, I do not think that is the case. I think it is reasonable to think that they could lose between 13 and 20 seats in the House, and maybe even as many as four seats in the Senate. Saying they are going to lose anything more than that is being caught up in a frenzy (caused by bad polling and MSM/Dem spin). If you really think that the GOP losses will be huge (as Bill Kristol does; I spent most of Thursday with him and I respectfully disagreed then as I do now) you are discounting human deliberation and choice. This doesn’t mean that I think the GOP and Bush are as popular now as they were two years ago. I know they are not. Yet, I do not think that the bottom has fallen out of their popularity. While there is much dissatisfaction with the GOP and Bush (especially on three things, Iraq, spending, and corruption), we are not in Watergate or Vietnam mode. Nor has the country become more liberal than it was two years ago. In fact, arguably, the effective criticism of Bush and the GOP has come from conservatives. Not all of those critics will end of voting for the Dems. Besides, if the people are so anti-GOP, then the Dems would be making their real opinions more public, and would be led by Nancy Pelosi. Furthermore, they would not have run all these moderate or even conservative candidates around the country. In short, discontent does not a tidal wave make. If my hunch/guesswork/analysis/supermarket-conversation-polling is right, then most so called close races (circa three or four point difference based on a real poll) will end up moving GOP on election day. So I think the GOP will hold the Senate (holding on to MO, TN, MT, OH and taking MD). And the GOP will hold the House (by a vote or two); they will only lose one House seat in Ohio, the 18th, Ney’s old seat. I think Blackwell will lose by about four to six points, but DeWine will keep his seat, barely, by one or two pints. And the GOP will hold about half of the state offices in Ohio, including Sect of State, Attorney General, and state auditor. There has never been any question in my mind that Lieberman would win, by the way.

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Even at their lowest ebbs, support for GWB, among Republicans, has, if I recall correctly, never dropped below 80%. That occurred several times: during the DB Ports World debacle (which, by the way, I supported him on), Harriet Meiers and during the months of debate over the border. Otherwise, his support among Pubbies has always hovered around 85%. This is , of course, according to Rassmussen. Every time his popularity dropped, it dropped because he was not conservative enough, not because anyone preferred Democrats.The Pelosinistas know this and know they can’t say what they really want to do IF they gain a majority.

With a very few exceptions, the question has never been whether Pubbies will vote Democrat, it is whether they’ll just stay home. Ohio may be an exception to that, what with the Taft scandals.

By the way, how’s the weather? It was 87 degrees and clear as a bell here in sunny southern CA today, good riding weather (I prefer peddle ponies to hogs). Still glad you left?

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