Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Senate Races

I don’t think Zogby poll results inspire much confidence. But I’ve linked them anyway, because they’re displayed with a cool map. Based on my review of all the polls, it seems that the control of the Senate rests on the outcomes in MO and TN, with the Republicans having to win them both. MO is worrisome because of the general tendency for a slight break against incumbents in the final days, especially in cases where the incumbent is not polling over 50%. But Talent does have a very small lead in virtually every poll. TN, despite Ford’s brilliant success in portraying himself as a paragon of prudent moderation, is tilting toward Corker a bit lately, with some polls showing him over 50%. I would predict both those contests right now by flipping a coin.

Allen really has fallen behind in virtually every poll, and Webb has the momentum. But that race is not lost for the Republicans, and MT is within the margin of error, although the margin is constantly in the D direction. In MD, Steele has the momentum, new endorsements from prominent African-American politicians in Prince Georges County, a widely publicized debate thrashing of his opponent, and rising African-American anger with the Democrats on his side. There’s even a sense that the MSM is almost rooting for him now. He really might win, but the odds are still against them in a very Democratic state in a Democratic year.

There’s a lot to be said for the thought that Steele and Ford are the most impressive candidates this year.

Be assured I’m just being a social scientist here. And so I can separate what I think from what I hope.

Discussions - 2 Comments

Zogby sucks. We better not lose more than 3 seats or i’m gonna be mad as H*ll. That means that Talent, Corker, Allen and DeWine need to win. Unfortunately, the first two are the only ones looking like they will. Perhaps a Steele upset can make up for one of these losses.

Cheer up you guys. We Democrats still have a week to mess this up.

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