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York on Romney’s Surge in Iowa and New Hampshire

Byron acknowledges Mitt’s clear and expanding leads in these two early-primary/caucus states, while adding that he’s lagging behind in the national polls. York’s opinion is that with the new mega-primary of February 5, which features some big states, the early primary results will be less important this time. That observation ignores most of the recent historical experience about primaries: The momentum gained by early victories in relatively tiny states can quickly turn those national polls around. But part of momentum is doing better than expected, and that’s why (as ol’ Howard Dean remembers) it may not be so great to be dominating Iowa at this point. Mitt conceivably may be peaking too soon, as John Edwards probably also is in Iowa. In New Hampshire, though, studies show that the famous independent vote that carried McCain to victory in 2000 will vote Democratic this time, and that will surely be to Mitt’s (and not, say, McCain’s or Giuliani’s) advantage.

Discussions - 3 Comments

A lot of crap here. Obviously Mitt is doing well because he's advertising in Iowa and others are not on the airwaves to his extent. Big deal, and this silly poll with him up double digits stands alone--McCain still leads the RCP average in both IA and NH!

I'd also add that the lack of independents in NH voting Republican is hardly a boon to Romney. Romney is very moderate; McCain may have been the maverick last time, but I'd challenge anyone to sensibly claim Romney or Giuliani is more conservative than McCain.

It's a common saying in politics that the campaign reflects the candidate. If that's true, then Romney's state-level (and national) campaigns are probably tighter and smarter operations than those of the other major candidates on our side.

Clint....before you decide to actually submit a post, you might want to do some minimum fact checking if you want to have any credibility. There are two polls that have Romney up double digits in IA. Also, the RCP averages have Romney AHEAD in both IA and NH.

You might want to invest in a clue about politics.

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