Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Random Observations

1. The race in FL is too close to call. If the American Research people are to be believed, there’s a slight Romney surge. But if there is, the other polls don’t seem to be picking it up. If Rasmussen is right, Romney has a very slight lead nationwide now, but Gallup disagrees.

2. I don’t believe the apparent fact that Romney had some doubts about the surge rises to the level of a campaign issue. The surge was, in fact, a risk, one that seems to be working out. And it’s quite an exaggeration to say that we’ve won or even see the future clearly in Iraq at this point. Romney is certainly not wobbly about doing what we have to do there.

3. Romney needs the mo’ that comes from the FL victory for a lot of reasons, even if only to justify the huge TV bucks he’ll have to spend in so many states in the days preceding Feb. 5. If you think about it, though, a Romney victory in FL would be the most impressive one so far in the primary/caucus process.

4. The young, admirable, Cuban, Catholic Speaker of the Florida House endorsed and is working for Huckabee. And there’s a small chance Huck’ll have his moment one-on-one with McCain for a few days. He doesn’t appear to be slipping that much in the other southern states, where he’s leading or almost... (Notice I’ve avoided the vulgar misstep of the Corner by not using the phrase "what the Huck?".)

5. The toughest thing to call right now, though, is Obama vs. Hillary. Obama is certainly not that far behind either nationwide or in the super-Tues sates.

Discussions - 4 Comments

I think Romney is going to win Florida, get the bounce, and take that into Super Tuesday.

I think McCain may have already peaked. The pundits all seem to assume that those who supported Giuliani will go to McCain, when Giuliani is no longer viable. I think that's an errant read of the lay of the land. I've NO intention of supporting McCain.

Romney at least will listen to Conservatives, he'll heed what NR, The Weekly Standard, and websites such as this have to say on the issues of the day.

McCain has a political messiah complex, and messiahs listen to their inner voice, chart their own course, follow their own star. McCain is then a hammerhead.

A McCain presidency will see him teaming up with Kennedy types and ganging up on American conservatives. He'll not seal the border; he'll take no action to slow down the Mexicanization of the United States.

He's a nightmare. His nomination is the ultimate legacy of the Bush administrations, {plural, father and son}.

Great points Peter. Care to make any predictions on Florida tonight?

I also wanted to invite ya'll to drop by ElephantBiz.com tonight and join us in live chat.

JX

Well, 1/2 in and it looks like McCain wins, with a near repeat of his vote from the past 2 battlegrounds. Note that he beat Romney 37-32 in NH; Huckabee 33-30 in SC; and now Romney about 35-32 in FL. Don't get me wrong, this is a big win and McCain is definitely better than flip-flop Mitt; however, McCain hasn't decisively proved he has the party. Giuliani will drop or be ineffective; where his voters go will be key. Dan makes a point, but my hunch is that the majority will dribble over to McCain.

Note the beauty of America's diversity in the results. Huckabee runs close in a three way race in the north. In fact he wins a few rural counties. Huckabee will remain a viable vote getter (note I did not say winner) in Georgia, Alabama, and the rest of the south, probably winning Arkansas and maybe even one other state. His support has bled without money and wins, but he his movement is still vibrant and there.

I do not believe that Romney can beat McCain among evangelicals, but if he could, he would have been better off with a blowout for McCain. Larger percentages and the sense of serious momentum would quickly make it a two man race given his money, even if Mitt came a distant second. As it is, McCain is still close enough to the field that many Huckabee voters will still case their vote for him on February 5. That's fine-Romney's a liberal and McCain-Huckabee would make a good ticket in an otherwise bad year.

The troubling development is that Florida ratified the choice of the idiosyncratics from New Hampshire. Florida moved their vote forward to have a say, and with that say all they did was confirm and corroborate decisions made by citizens of New Hampshire and South Carolina. They had an opportunity to almost make it a brand new race, but they chose instead to confirm the selection of the old, old, old McCain. Our party often selects a man because it's his "turn," that's what we saw tonight. McCain got it because of his many appearances on MTP and Fox News, going back over a decade. He wasn't the majority or minority leader, or whip for that matter. He chaired no major committee in the Senate, but he wielded more power than other Republican therein. And that power was usually wielded to the detriment of the GOP and the nation at large.

The nomination of the hammerhead McCain is a nightmare within a nightmare.

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