Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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O.K., it’s on to Florida. Here’s a story that argues, rightly I think, that McCain and Giuliani are fighting over many of the same constituencies, and a poll to support that argument. I’d bet on McCain to let the remaining air out of Rudy’s balloon.

Thompson voters apparently aren’t a big prize in Florida, but Huckabee supporters are. As I said before, Romney doesn’t have to win here, but he has to try to make sure that he, rather than McCain, becomes "Plan B" for Huckabee supporters, should they conclude (as they probably should) that their man can’t win. Anything less than second ought to be a serious disappointment for Romney, while first isn’t altogether out of the question, if Huckabee supporters migrate his way.

Discussions - 4 Comments

It is a myth that Romney can pick up the voters that leave other candidates. If you talk with people, there are three divisive candidates. Hillary Clinton of course leads with all Republicans hating her, and 1/3 of Democrats too. Rudy Giuliani is also divisive with most Democrats hating him as well as quite a few Republicans.

More to the point is that the 3rd candidate that people hate is Mitt Romney. Democratic friends of mine all despise Mitt; he'll get no crossovers in primary or general elections. Republicans who don't support him already also usually hate the guy. In fact Romney's campaign is ill designed to pick up those leaving Huck, Giuliani, Thompson. He has attacked all of those candidates and insulted those who have been supporting other candidates. He will now pay the price for his negative campaigning. Also, fair or not, he has the image of opportunism that people despise. And his record in Ohio-a must win for the GOP in November-is even more hated because Bain Capital like gobbling up and screwing small businesses all across Ohio and Indiana. Romney as the nominee which is still unlikely would be total suicide. It's hard to see him getting to 40% and winning more than UT, WY, ID, and the deepest of the deep south.

I support(ed) Huck and Romney isn't even plan D.

Clint, factor in the hammering that McCain is going to be receiving from talk radio. When those listeners become disenchanted with McCain, where are they going to go. They'll end up moving to the sole, VIABLE candidate left, which will be Romney, unless Giuliani wins Florida and makes himself part of the unfolding story.

I can see Romney winning simply by virtue of staying on his feet long enough to reap the political windfall, which will result from McCain's enemies rising to finally drag him down once and for all.

Romney's victories in Nevada and Michigan haven't earned him the nomination, BUT those victories may enable him to stay on his feet just long enough, while other forces, other voices gather around McCain, with daggers drawn, in a modern replay of what happened to Caesar right before the statue of Pompey the Great.

Romney shouldn't aim for winning right now, he should just aim for staying on his feet through Super Tuesday, and just hope that Limbaugh and company prove powerful enough to stop McCain.

One man, one campaign won't stop McCain. To drown out McCain, it's going to require the whole conservative orchestra coming together for one great SYMPHONIC ROAR. Nothing else will do.

All eyes now turn to Florida.

Dan, I don't disagree with you; you're right that it could happen but is unlikely. After they killed Ceasar, it took about 10 years until leadership in Augustus emerged. If the GOP kills McCain, it will be at least 4. Romney would suck the soul and viability out of the party. It would be a defeat of Goldwater proportions running a candidate of Nixon principles.

I've looked at the poll and I don't see anything there to support the idea that Giuliani and McCain supporters are alike. They may be, but that poll does not show it, IMO.

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