1. No miracle for Huck: The polls were right that showed him surging but falling short in Virginia. The bad news for Mac: The self-described conservatives and evangelicals are more against him than ever. If there’s any campaign that’s been blessed or at least lucky it’s McCain’s.
2. To repeat what many experts have been saying: The people who still give Hillary a chance are the same ones who actually thought Giuliani’s fallback strategy could work. The demographics of Obama’s big win in Virginia show how hopeless her effort is to slow down the Change-and-Hope train.
3. Obama’s speech in Wisconsin tonight was very, very impressive. It was much more specific than usual. He praised McCain as a national hero, but added that he’s too wedded to Bush/Cheney. Evidence:
McCain was right to call Bush’s tax cut for the rich in the time of war unpatriotic, but now he’s flip-flopped. And Obama made it clear that he (unlike Hilltary) can’t be criticized for ever having supported the Iraq war, which he claims everyone now knows was a mistake. He also talked a lot about heath care. I can’t help but wonder how well Mac’s going to do in articulating and defending his (newly?) Republican views of tax cuts and health care. Defending the war is easy enough in Republican primaries, but studies show it’s going to be tough in November. It won’t be enough to defend the surge; McCain will have to make a convincing case for having gone to war in Iraq in the first place.
No one can deny that Huck's continued strong showings make him better and more necessary VP material.
It won’t be enough to defend the surge; McCain will have to make a convincing case for having gone to war in Iraq in the first place.
Can you explain more fully?
What I'm wondering is if anyone has crunched the numbers via the electoral college. It seems plausible at least that McCain could win if he can hold the swing states and keep turn-out high in the strong holds. But I'm no statistician.
The old cantankerous guy who privately blows up, and begins every speech with a contrived and increasingly dated: "my friends," against a guy who can say: "We're bringing Democrats together, we're bringing independents together, we're even bringing Republicans together...," and say all that as if it were the Gettysburg Address, and what's more, get people to believe that by mere recitation of that empty nonsense, he's actually accomplished something.
I knew, and I said long ago that America was getting set up for a VAST articulation backlash.
The Bush years made America HUNGRY, DESPERATELY HUNGRY for an intelligent, coherent and articulate man. Bush's communicative failures, DELIBERATE failures, left all of America UNIQUELY vulnerable to a man who speaks effortlessly, speaks easily, speaks glibly of things he doesn't understand, BUT speaks persuasively of the platitudes he's endlessly pushing.
Observe Obama's audiences when he's speaking. He's saying NOTHING, yet they deem his MERE speaking performance as a DEED, as a SUBSTANTIVE act by a politician.
Hannity asked his cult followers what has he actually done, and they were stunned at the question. For they know the answer: "HE SPEAKS!" THAT'S his sole claim to fame, and after the Bush years, it's more than enough for an America hungry for soaring rhetoric.
The verbal cripple and his gang of communicative palsies set the stage for an Obama-messiah.
Congratulations GW! Congratulations Cheney! Congratulations Andy Card! Congratulations to Karen Hughes. Congratulations to Condi! Congratulations one and all for leaving my country in such a clueless state.
After living through the Bush years, I didn't think my party would ever consider extending the nomination to anyone without complete command of the English language. I didn't think such a thing remotely possible.
God, we are so going to regret throwing Giuliani overboard.
ALL Obama-messiah needs to do is run ads of McCain standing next to the widely loathed Bush/Cheney. That's all. He doesn't need to run on specifics. He doesn't need to answer questions with any degree of precision.
All he needs to do is wander the nation speaking. Just speaking.
Obama just needs to pour forth words, clauses, sentences, paragraphs. Clear sentences, {they needn't say anything}. Well turned clauses and phrases, {which needn't clue in anyone of much}. Sentences that roll on and on, but inform no one of anything.
And all the while running ads of the hated Bush/Cheney arm in arm with the old, old, old ----------------------------------- did I say OLD, John McCain.
And what's McCain going to do. He's going to look like an old curmudgeon caught in the headlights of post-modern, Oprah America. And while he's sputtering out "my friends" to a disgusted and distrustful audience, the Obama-messiah is leading the majority of Americans to a political mountaintop where they will be vouchsafed a vision of him transfiguring himself from a mere mortal to a ------------------------------------------ MESSIAH.
Obama's followers see him in some weird light. It's difficult not to conclude that Obama is but another false messiah thrown forward in an age replete with them.
It's almost like he's the major character in Frank Herbert's sci-fi masterpiece DUNE, Obama is on the verge of becoming the UNIVERSE'S first super-being, the Kwizat Haderach, {sp?}.
This race will either be a blow out for Obama, or a replay of Carter v. Ford. Where Ford tried to close late, but his own communicative incompetence betrayed him.
"My friends", I love predictions! At this blog and so many others, some of them (paraphrased from about every conservative blog I've read over the past 6 months) include "Guiliani comes on", "McCain is done", "Obama and empty suit", "Romney is the one", "Huckabee can unify the party", etc. My reply to all of this is "how the hell do any of you know?". Did you ever think that McCain was "the guy"? That the Clinton machine might be stopped by a bunch of horny women? That not a single conservative type would have a shot at the Republican nomination? That a guy who just he's got a lot of hope in an exciting speaking style would be the front runner to be president? No? I didn't think so. Predicting that McCain will look grumpy and old and Obama will glide through the process effortlessly because he is a rock star is as silly as "Dewey defeats Truman". You just don't know....
John McCain was "the guy" as much as Bob Dole was "the guy."
Moreover, McCain will not look grumpy as in future tense. He already looks grumpy, that's PRESENT tense not future. Furthermore, it's not even a question of McCain appearing grumpy. McCain IS grumpy. That's who he is. That's why Thad Cochran said he'd be scared to death of a McCain presidency.
He's not like Romney; he's not in control of himself. And he's not a likable fellow. Sure he'll tell tales like the old warhorse he is, to be sure. And he'll bat down a few cold ones with the media off the record. But he's NOT an affable man. He's NOT a measured man, a coldly calculating man. He's a hothead. And a long, LONG campaign season will reveal what lurks inside. That's the ONE virtue of a lengthy campaign. That we can bank on. If come August he's made no serious inroad against the Obama-phenomenon, he could get explosive.
CAN he win? Sure he "can" win, and I remarked as much on another thread.
But the question isn't what's politically plausible. The issue at bar is WHETHER he WILL win, whether he WILL prevail over whatever Democrat nominee is selected.
And I think the likely answer is no. And I'm not alone on that.
But he will prove more spirited than Dole, who apparently treated the whole '96 campaign as one last swan-song of his political career. McCain will fight. He'll fire elbows; the old guy won't go down easy. Whether that prevents a blow out or not remains to be seen.
Our entire party committed a vast blunder nominating him.
And as with most blunders, we're going to pay -------------------------------------------------- and pay dearly.
Dan (and others) ... here are a few questions for you to chew on and offer your insights. All are based on the assumption the general election is Obama vs. McCain:
Have fun. :-)
I fear Dan is right about the temperment problem.
Tiger, I confess to being one of those "McCain, no way it's gonna happen" NLT guys. I'm still in a state of shock about it, frankly. But the major negatives folks like Dan and I see in McCain, while they clearly were'nt enough to keep 40% of Republicans voting for him, could really hurt big-time in the election. Yes, he attracts independents. But the turned-off by temperment voters, and the conservative sit-outs(not moi!) may cost him many more votes.
But we're stuck with him now and have to make the best of it. Let the McCainites realize that they are sort of a unique branch of the Republican party, that they really can't and shouldn't pressure the more constituted conservative parts of the party to start singin' their tune on downplaying social conservatism and immigration, that they simply have to treat those to their right with respect, and things may work out OK. But, with all due respect to Tiger's basic point, I don't think McCain can win. I hope and pray I'm wrong.
McCain DOES have some political strengths, he CAN win the election.
DON IN Arizona's questions would make a decent plot for a political thriller.
As for McCain's chances, observe how McCain STILL hasn't truly reached out to disgruntled and disgusted Conservatives. That tells us that his campaign STILL DOESN'T GET IT. They have NO clue how many Conservatives are livid, LIVID with that whole "maverick" affectation. That doesn't provide Republicans much confidence in that campaign's ability to fend off a much more nimble and flexible Obama campaign.
We'll see.
HRC hasn't lost yet...