Reihan Salam points to this Barone post on the loss of Denny Hastert’s erstwhile seat.
The issue is one that deserves some attention. In 2000 and 2004, Republicans prospered as the party of the suburbs and especially the exurbs. Not so in 2006.
I’ve discussed these matters before here and here, but am now less inclined to be sanguine about the short-term nature of Republican difficulties. Iraq isn’t the only challenge.
The GOP has spent the last several years waging war on its own base. The only surprise is that it's doing as well as it is.
To say that the GOP has been "waging war on its base" is extremely inexact. The leadership of the party (not the entire party) has tended to be disconnected from the base and its dearest values and interests. That's different. If we don't understand the difference there, we don't understand the problem and are merely engaging in apolitical, anti-political posturing.
I don't think it is sufficient to say that the leadership is "disconnected" from the base. The leadership is actively hostile to the "dearest values and interests" of the base. Or perhaps they regard the base as the people who write them the big checks, rather than the people who vote for them.