The most reasonable quick summary of the facts is given by, believe it or not, Dick Morris. It would tear the party apart not to nominate an African American with the most elected delegates, and the Democratic system of proportional representation makes it impossible for Hillary to catch up on that front. Not only that, PA was Hillary country, in part, because of the closed primary and the very elderly electorate. NC and IN will have open primaries and considerably younger voters. Obama’s strengths are among the young and the independents, which is why, of course, he remains the stronger candidate against McCain. Each party is going to nominate a candidate who didn’t really win the support of its rank-and-file.
Do these strengths point to potential pitfalls in a general election? It's still unclear what the youth turnout will be and the real vs rhetorical evidence for centrism/bi-partisanship points to McCain as the Independent candidate, if his campaign can play that card astutely enough. Also, Obama's dominance of the black vote won't mean nearly as much in a general election as it does in a democratic primary and there is some prima facie evidence that the dem primary could be genuinely hurtful to Obama in the general. Of course, all the prevailing winds still seem to be at the Dem's backs.
Dear Professor Lawler,
Romney outspent Huck in Iowa and lost. Hillary outspent Obama in Iowa and lost. Romney outspent McCain in New Hamshire and lost. Obama outspent Hillary in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania and lost. Its not unheard of for well funded candidates to flame out (Jonh Connaly in 1980 and Phil Gramm in 1996), but have you ever seen an election where the ability to dominate the airwaves with paid media has mattered so little?
Peter, in the key blue states that the Democrats have to carry to prevail in the general, such as Pennsylvania for instance, Hillary Clinton proved herself much the stronger candidate. Now the Democrat nominee is going to face a very strong challenge from a guy with a certain appeal not just for independents, but Democrats. That being the case, why would it be wise to pass final judgement upon Hillary's candidacy.
Pennsylvania's results demonstrated that Obama's appeal is very thin, and confined to very discrete communities, such as "the young voter," who notoriously doesn't show up in the general, and upscale Liberal caucasians, whose number is insufficient to seal victory in the Fall. Amongst Catholics Obama found little traction. Yet that demographic the Democrat will need to secure the Presidency.
I'm beginning to think that Obama's shtick is getting old, and getting old fast. Pennsylvania has provided additional proof that he is unable to forge a true coalition that spans all groups, and thus he's arguably the weaker Democrat candidate.
Obama is carrying states that the Democrats are unlikely to carry in the Fall. Yet Hillary has proved herself stronger in key Blue states. Yet some pronounce Hillary dead and buried.
She may not gain the nomination, but she surely has a case that can be made to the Superdelegates for why she should be vouschafed the nomination.
Thus reports of her demise are premature.
I've never found Morris to be a useful political commentator.
I'm in NC. Can I vote for Huck & Obama - in other words, at it is an "open" primary does this mean I can vote both parties at the same time?