Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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What happened yesterday

Jay Cost explains. I’d add that parts of northern Indiana are in the Chicago media market, which ought to have helped Obama.

Of course, the bottom line is that Clinton underperformed in the expectations game, and the bottomest line is that even an overperformance on her part probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference in the final outcome.

Discussions - 6 Comments

Clinton underperformed in the expectations game precisely because the expectations were fueled by a different logic than the one shared by the typical voter. Peggy Noonan was closer to the consensus view on the street when it came to the Reverend Wright, probably because she bothered to ask someone.(he was old news, not new just because he reiterated...and democrats that were for Obama already had an idea that such was the baggage.)

With Indiana sharing as much in common with Ohio as Illinois, the very close result there was not unexpected. Previous to the Reverend Wright fiasco that hit the academic media sector(because only such folks would see a distinction between saying it before and again...did clips ever stop playing on youtube?(wasn't traffic dying down...did it pick up over the previous height?), a 51-49 Clinton result in Indiana would have suprised no one.

Having decided that the hype was localized to an insignificant sector in terms of election result(but maybe not in terms of superdelegates), I was confident that the media would be in for a wake up call.

So Dr. Knippenburg, had Clinton overperformed wouldn't it have mattered greatly to superdelegates?

I am tempted to say absolutely.

But there were no concessions in her speech last night. The only thing that remotely resembled humility in it was her assertion that the divisions within the Democratic Party will not carry over to November, that the election is too important to give to a Republican, and that she will campaign no matter who gets the nomination. But Obama said virtually the same thing so, again, no concession. Indeed, I don’t know if anyone else noticed it, but she ended her speech with a very pointed and very heavily emphasized, "God Bless America" and seemed to posit that she has a different, more American understanding of what being an American is all about. I think she’s throwing down the gauntlet. I also think that this was the most effective speech I’ve seen her give and that, if she does get the nomination, she will be dangerous if she can maintain that level of energy and that tone in her rhetoric. I still think the odds are in Obama’s favor by a wide margin . . . but one never knows with Democrats.

She won Pennsylvania by 10 points two weeks ago.

If anyone should be pulling out, it should be Obama, whose constituency looks narrower and narrower week by week. Other than upscale, guilty Caucasian, "lifestyle" libs, and Black America, ------------------------- what constituency within that party does he command?

The halo is falling off, and that's BEFORE the Dem primary is over. They needed that halo to be very firmly attached up till the convention.

With Wright, Cone, the wife, talk radio has more than enough ammunition to bring him down. Regardless of the listless campaign that we should expect McCain to run.

We're looking at a very good scenario for the GOP come November. Obama probably cannot be stopped, in which case the Dems run an extremely polarizing candidate who polls very poorly among whites and isn't likely to attract any moderates. If by some miracle the Dems end up giving the nomination to someone else, African-Americans will--with some justification--feel betrayed by the party which they have loyally supported since 1936, and won't see any reason to trouble themselves by voting in November. Heck, the Republicans might even pick up a solid chunk of the black vote.

Of course, the downside is that the particular Republican who's going to benefit from this is John McCain.

There is always that significant downside.

The only thing worse than Obama winning in the Fall is McCain prevailing, then deluding himself he has a mandate for his middling, ingratiate-yourself-with-the-Libs-and-the-media agenda. How much more "reform" from McCain can the country and the Constitution stand.

That's ridiculous.

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