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Gallup Daily, first bounce

Gallup Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, shows that Obama leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin. This is the first bounce from the convention. Because it doesn’t include most of the night that included the Biden speech, the bounce will likely get higher; plus the addition of Obama’s speech tonight.

Discussions - 8 Comments

It's all owed to the Indians' late season winning streak and the Cubs' success.

Steve: I was coming through the back-door in the library this morning on my way to class and there was a fellow (there a few times a week) unpacking something. We often chat for a few minutes when we bump into one another, usually about politics. He started talking when he saw me and my ears were looking for politics as I was ruminating about the Dem Convention of the previous night...and a half minute into his discourse I realized he was talking about the Indians' great winning streak and how excited he was about it! I paused perplexed(not knowing anything about the streak) and then wondered how these Americans can do that, think about baseball when tthere is politics going on. I love these people! They know what's important.

Will his numbers pause at 48, and recede, or will they continue to advance, and exceed 50?

If he can't cross 50, after the hysteria attending him these last few days, ..................... he's in serious trouble.

PWS - Famously, long ago James Reston said that the American people pay attention to the election only after the baseball season. It was long ago, before the NFL and the NBA sucked the oxygen out of baseball, and he must have been an optimist.

How do convention bounces usually work? Do they tend to start early, break late, or steadily rise? I'm not sure the late start is unusual. It might be, but perhaps not. Are there usually so many daily tracking polls?

STEVE, did Reston make that observation when Major League Baseball was still the national pastime?

RICHARD, significant bounces would be showing huge advances by now. Recall, the Convention really began for Obama last weekend, when the euphoric media began their coverage of the "historic moment." He's had at least 5 straight days of uncritical coverage. Gallup shows a 6 point bounce, ----------- that's pretty minor considering the coverage. And the Dems damn well know it.

But tonight is his sermon to America, {yet another...}, it will be interesting to see whether America collectively rolls its eyes.

DAN - yes he did. I hope we don't have to wait until after the Super Bowl.

I think you guys are underestimating the extent that sports is also about politics. If I want to know what the
"average joe" is thinking I will tune into Mike and Mike in the morning. I do believe in momentum swings, if only because when I watch football I have a good feel for when big hits, key defensive plays or general energy boost are about to swing a game. On the other hand I am a bit leery of exporting this idea into presidential politics. I liked Julie's suggestion that she always lied to polsters on principle. You might have to be slightly machiavellian to do something like that, but I don't know why a McCain supporter couldn't tell a pollster that he was going to vote for Obama. You could effectively create momentum and then deflate it. It would be like a buckeye fan proping up the idea that michigan was in the red zone...and of course when the next round of polling comes up and it is known that expectations for Obama are high well then no machiavellian McCain supporters defect, the resulting field goal being wide right.

In other words what if the large majority of americans being sports fans are aware of momentum, feel neither particularily attached to Obama or McCain and simply decide to fuck with the polsters.

It is a distinct possibility and one I am happily party to. Because we already know what polsters, pundits and commentators are likely to say. I mean at the very least it is a fun time to be a "clinton democrat", and I don't know that three quarters of these jokers aren't just playing games, in fact that is quite along the lines that I suspect.

If you could compare it to sports I would have partisans being Ohio State/Michigan fans. There is obviously an element of trash talking...but I think one of the key elements missing is the resentment of Lee Corso and Kurt Herbstreet. In other words even the folks who don't follow politics hate the pundits/commentators. They blame these guys for hypeing up certain teams, the preseason rankings especially in college football can make all the difference in who ends up the national champion or gets a shot at a decent bowl game. So here again we have predictions and polls playing a defining role. It is the BCS all over again. So when Gallup calls what sort of momentum will actually be measured?

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