I’m glad Steve was the first to notice the big lead Obama now has in the ABC/CBS poll, and I’m going to add that it is quite rare to have a lead that big this late and lose. Now that poll certainly has its flaws, and we can take some comfort in not seeing the same sort of margin yet in the others. But Steve is right also to notice pro-O changes in the state polls too.
The reason for these changes is the economy and the natural tendency of people to look for paternalistic competence in a very uncertain and threatening environment. Republicans can shout that this ain’t like the Great Depression, and in any case the New Deal policies did nothing but prolong that economic crisis. But more and more people do fear that something like a depression is just around the corner, and their fears seem to be confirmed by the experts who say there’s no time to waste when it comes to the big, big, big bailout and unprecedented empowerment of the executive branch.
So when people see Obama they think FDR. Meanwhile, McCain seems to be doing is best to imitate TR’s angry demands that the evildoers be punshed and the trusts be busted etc. FDR will always be more popular than TR, and I fear people don’t think that they need a warrior to make them safe in a crisis of this kind. The challenge to McCain right now is huge.
And this is exactly why the Democrats are happy to prolong the crisis in Congress. If a deal is reached and things settle down, it may go back to a tight race and they certainly don't want that. Nevermind what's best for the country.
The conservatives - well, neocons, at least - will have to work hard to reduce the number of people who can or do vote if they want to take this one.
There is no doubt that Obama leads, the question is how much? The Dems may have a lot to be happy about, but the best assessment on the race still seems to be Jay Cost.
The race is far from over, and the Dems should be owning most Republicans top to down ticket. In some states at least, they aren't.
It's not the economic news that's moving the numbers.
There are several related issues at work.
In no particular order:
1} The GOP has gotten away from humour, in the runup to the convention, the GOP was unleashing one amusing ad after another, and making Obama and his whole campaign look patently absurd, but now they've turned serious, and McCain has started fulminating against Wall Street, {bad strategy, I'm a firm believer that humour has to be thematic throughout any campaign};
2} Governor Palin has been hamstrung more by McCain campaign handlers than by the media; and
3} They've refused to push the radical aspects of Obama and the whole Dem ticket.
80% of court cases are won on opening arguments. Now just think about that number, ---------------------- 80%.
Right now, WE'RE IN OPENING ARGUMENTS, the jury is paying attention, and instead of listening to witty ads gashing that sacred cow, Obama, they're hearing instead McCain fulminating about issues he's barely familiar with.
So what's the response?
Unleash Governor Palin!
Go after Obama for being a radical Lefty, and after the entirety of the Democrat leadership for being Lefties as well.
And most importantly, GET BACK TO USING HUMOUR!
Where's Giuliani?
Where's Fred Thompson? Those are the guys that should be making appearances with McCain. And let Governor Palin get out there on her own.
This isn't difficult.
Dan, There's something to each piece of your advice. Clearly the Reps. were trying to sit on a tiny lead and have been traumatized excessively by recent events. But the studies really do show the economy is a very big factor in the move to Obama.