As usual, I don’t really know. I will say that two of three tracking polls that include 10/6 have McCain within the margin of error. And the newest polls from the battleground states do too. The econmic news, of course, remains really bad, and McCain really hasn’t gotten his anti-Obama message down yet. So I think there’s reason for hope, as there’s also reason to fear a Democratic landslide. I agree with Mike Murphy that the three McCain talking points about Obama should be--too weak, too liberal, too inexperienced. To be balanced, let me add that if I were Obama, here would be my three McCain points--too old, too unbalanced, too Bushie.
BLOODY UPDATE: The Gallup tracking now has Obama up by 9. And he is up by 15 in PA. Things aren’t get better, and they may be getting slightly worse.
The Morning Tracking Poll that has Obama up by 11 in PA also has a skew of +15 for Dems in the sample, so let's not lose our heads. This is almost entirely a media-driven frenzy designed to drive down Republican turnout and energize the Dem base.
RCP has 4 polls ending 10/5 and 10/6 showing BO ahead by no more than 2 or 3%. It has many other good ones with bigger margins. This suggests that McCain still has an opening to the voters. I think it continues to indicate that although Americans desperately want "the other guy" after the last 8 years (or perhaps 8 days), they are simply uncomfortable with the other guy being BO, who just can't quite sell himself. It calls for McCain to do something dramatic -- not just attacking Obama which cannot move enough voters back to himself -- but in proposing dramatic policy changes of the "big idea" type. That idea is almost certainly "dollar stability," which means restoring a unit of value as the target for the dollar, in short gold. There is no other way any longer. The central bankers are now shoveling dollars down a rathole and are doing no good at all. Todays market drop was among the worse and no sign of stopping. We are experiencing a global deflation. It can only be stopped by stabilizing the dollar as a store and predictor of value for the long term. Personally I would say that if people came to have confidence that the dollar was about to become as good as gold and silver once again, all of this would stop and soon reverse. The dollar would become the only currency in the world worth having. Destroying the money standard is one of Richard Nixon's legacies which McCain could attack and call for reversing, with great effect.
More negativity. Hope about something more hopeful?
I live about 45 minutes outside Philly and McCain signs outnumber Obama signs 4 to 1. Also several people have asked me (I have a sign in my yard) where they can get one. I know this is purely anecdotal evidence but don't give up on PA yet.