To paraphrase Stephen Stills, "There’s a man with a poll over there, tellin’ me, I’ve got to beware." Beware of polls, perhaps.
It is the dream of every trailing candidate to repeat the Truman in 1948 experience. But the nonstop polling of modern election cycles suggests we can’t be surprised like that again, and even the late polls in 2000 picked up most (though not all) of the late Gore surge. That said, number-cruncher extraordinaire Jay Cost has been noting oddities in recent poll results that suggest this election has some intrinsic weirdness (to use a technical political science term) going on: "They [the leading polls] are disagreeing with one another in ways that can’t be chalked up to statistical ’noise.’ That gives me great pause." Me, too.
What it is ain't exactly clear . . . (sorry, couldn't resist).
Two cents on the polls:
If John McCain weren't the Republican candidate, this election would be over. If Barack Obama weren't black, this election would be over. Why the shock at odd polls? We have no idea how the national electorate will really vote when faced with a black candidate. Likewise, John McCain is the master of unthinkable comebacks.
How will it turn out? Well when the average voter sees the name "Barack Obama," they're going to think what the hell is this, a movie star name or a professional wrestler. Meanwhile the other choice is "John McCain," and that's as American as Apple pie, or at least potato[e]s :) Advantage McCain.
Secondly, the average voter will see party affiliation. Democratic Party: yeah the party that helps us out when times are tough. Republican Party: they have that President I don't like and have got us in this mess. Advantage Obama.
Has John McCain convinced Americans that he isn't just a Republican? I think not. Has Barack Obama made voters comfortable with him being President? I think he's close. Barring a serious and credible surge in stories where Obama admits he's a communist and chose Marxist friends, stands with Islam more than Christianity, etc, Obama wins going away...(including OH, CO, IA, VA, FL).
Palin's effect has completely worn off. I was never a huge fan, but I thought that her nomination would at least put states like Montana and North Dakota out of play for Obama. Now both states are polling very close. Like it or not, this proves that Palin has, at best, been a wash on the ticket. If her Alaska resume doesn't translate to votes in Montana, don't fool yourself into thinking she's a strong candidate.
Politics be darned, I'm pretty happy right now because I bought an AR-15 this weekend. It doesn't matter who wins, freedom will endure for the armed citizen.
We'll all need to arm ourselves if HUSSEIN Obama becomes president. He might surrender our country to the Arabs but they won't take me without a fight.
Clinging to your guns and Palin's gods will not win in 2012.
Nope. The Koran will come in a lot handier by then. But it doesn't matter because if HUSSEIN Obama wins in 2008 there won't be an election in 2012. We'll be under sharia law long before that.