Far be it from me to question Steve Hayward, yet, from the many sources on the internet quoting his speech, and praising his book, I've come to the conclusion that some of what he ascerts is just plain wrong.
Read "The Rebellion of Ronald Reagan" and point out the errors of my thinking.
https://www.amazon.com/Rebellion-Ronald-Reagan-History-Cold/dp/0670020540/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1239858433&sr=1-1

A solid and prescient article, albeit I like to offer unsolicited comments all of them usually bad, and none of them short...Crawling foward...I picked up Useless Arithmetic by Pilkey-Jarvis, its pretty good albeit I am never sure if the Arithmetic is useless or just useless because folks don't know its limitations(like blackjack theory when you think you know it, then it is most dangerous)...I mention this because I remmembered that you reviewed the book favorably, and after partial review I agree. Still I think Random Walk is false in part because of the predictability of unpredictability, or at least when it comes to reactions(market psychology) perhaps like the type MikeD mentions. In any case I digress and will spare you...perfect read on the lay of the land, I suspect Dr. Schramm only gave you two coffee's because if liberals weren't alienated by your stance on the environment they might learn something.

Strange that I assume I am speaking directly to Mr. Hayward...quite predictable of me.

Albeit I am not a Hitler, even if I always suspect I see from the ground what the chateau general miss...Good health and best of wishes to you Dr. Schramm.