John Judis calls our attention to a Pennsylvania poll that shows Pat Toomey with an eleven point lead over Arlen Specter. If Specter makes it out of the Democratic primary (which is no sure thing), it is tough to see how Specter makes this up. Its not like people are going to learn to like him more.
The crosstabs of the Franklin and Marshall poll that Judis cites are similar to the PPP polls before the Scott Brown race in Massachusetts. Toomey beats Specter by more that 2 to 1 among whites, but Specter beats Toomey by over 20 to 1 (yes, you read that right) among nonwhites. Specter also has a tiny lead over Toomey among young voters. The last PPP poll of Massachusetts saw Scott Brown winning whites by 12 (thats alot anyway, but huge for Massachusetts) but losing nonwhites by large margins. The good news is that there seems to have been a stampede of white persuadables towards Republicans in two Senate races and potentially in others where there is a credible Republican candidate. The bad news is that this Republican surge seems based on winning whites by margins that I doubt are sustainable past the conditions of 2010. The margins by which Republicans are losing nowhites are, I fear, all too sustainable if something does not change in Republican strategy.