So says our pal Hadley Arkes, in the new issue of The Weekly Standard
. All the pieces are in place for a historic GOP smackdown of the Democratic Party--if
Republicans keep their nerve between now and November. Well, okay, they are Republicans, so keep biting your nails.
While many speak of a repeat of 1994, and Michael Barone points to 1946 as an analogy
, Hadley goes one better, examining the parallel with British party realignment in the 1920s, which smashed the Labour Party for almost a generation. I'll take any and all of the above.
I'm already thinking of an over/under line for the House and Senate. If the Democrats only lose 25 House seats, they can count themselves lucky, and remain more or less in business. The GOP needs at least a 35 seat pickup to claim a solid victory, a number I think is highly likely at this early point. I think the upper bound of what is possible is as high as 60 seats, at which point Obama will have to follow Clinton's model and call up Dick Morris if he is to survive in 2012. For the Senate, my over/under line is 7 seats right now. I can easily see the GOP getting 10 or more.