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Super Tuesday: A Teaser

Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will proceed to a run-off election, as neither reached 50% in the Arkansas Democratic primary. "Move-on"-style liberals are celebrating Lincoln's morass as a reprimand to incumbents who opposed Obama's agenda, though broader and more general anti-incumbency sentiments are likely responsible.

Accordingly, turncoat incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter lost to Rep. Joe Sestak. Specter, a 5-term GOP senator, switched parties last year to avoid certain defeat as a Republican. Seems the switch didn't preserve him, after all.

Also, Tea Party candidate Rand Paul (son of Rep. Ron Paul) won the Kentucky primary, giving the movement a taste of legitimacy and institutional presence. Like Specter, endorsed by President Obama and much of the Democratic machine, Paul's adversary, Trey Grayson, was favored by the GOP establishment, including Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell.

However, in the only 2-party contest of the night, the late Rep. John Murtha's seat was successfully defended by his former aide. GOP strategist Tom Davis interpreted the result as ominous for the GOP. "If you can't win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?"

Hawaii's special election for the seat vacated by Rep. Neil Abercrombie will be held on Saturday.

Categories > Elections

Discussions - 3 Comments

Davis's assessment of the PA-12 race is an odd one. I'm not sure what he means by "a seat that is trending Republican." It's the seat that holds most of Pittsburgh--a Democrat town if there ever was one--and has been carefully gerrymandered so that no Democrat could ever lose it. For Burns to have won would have truly been an upset of the magnitude of Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts, and Burns didn't have the benefit of an inept and complacent opponent. The fact that Burns managed to win 45 percent of the vote is, indeed, hopeful news for the GOP.

I agree. I relayed the message as I heard it, and figured it was unbiased coming from a GOP strategist - but on inspection, I too think the "trending Republican" label is misplaced and that Burns' showing was exceptional, tending to lend credence to a GOP "wave."

Thanks, John.

Moreover, the "Democrat" who eeked out a victory here is pro-gun, pro-life and against Obamacare . . . ummmm . . . yeah. WHICH party is in trouble?

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