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Barone on the Gallup Poll

Picking up on Peter's post yesterday on the astonishing Gallup poll results for President Obama, I note Michael Barone's analysis today of the generic Congressional ballot poll.  Key graph: 

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like '94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Categories > Elections

Discussions - 1 Comment

That will be a happy day, but I'm uncomfortable with all the hype. Overconfidence is a real concern. And how will the Tea Party split tickets around the country? I'd bite my nails if I had any left to bite.

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