Back over Labor Day at the APSA, I told everyone that I was calling for the GOP to pick up 60 seats in the House, mostly as a way of baiting folks to get the hyper-optimistic and the hyper-pessimistic range. I started to believe the number was possible when Norm Ornstein told me three weeks ago he thought 60 was entirely plausible. Well, this morning I read that Stu Rothenberg, one of the straight-shooting forecasters along with Charlie Cook, thinks the number could be 70 or more. Seventy
. I'm tempted to make that my new over-under line, but I'll go out on a limb here and suggest that if the GOP gets to 70 in the House, they'll get the Senate, too. I still say there is going to be a surprise Democrat loser in the Senate right now that no one is watching, like Gillibrand in New York or Wyden in Oregon (go Jim Huffman!!), though Blumenthal remains my favorite pick for a mediocrity who deserves to lose.
The real wild card that almost no one is talking about is the black vote, which, a well-plugged in political reporter I lunched with on Thursday told me, is even more disappointed with Obama than environmentalists. Be interesting to see the exit polls on this, especially in urban areas in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, to shift subjects radically, is there anything new to learn about Hitler? Apparently yes. There's an interesting review in today's Wall Street Journal
(subscription required, alas) of a new book by Thomas Weber, Hitler's First War
, that examines new documents and evidence showing that, for example, Hitler came to his anti-Semitism only after WWI, and briefly wore Communist garb and supported the short-lived Bavarian Soviet Republic. Weber says we can't tell whether this was sincere or whether he was infiltrating the radical left. But above all, Weber's account apparently debunks many of Hitler's claims in Mein Kampf