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Elections

The Tidal Wave

Politico interviews some Dems on tomorrow's vote: "While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday -- the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats."

Also: "While there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that the electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said those conversations don't take place anymore."

The latest Gallup Poll confirms their mood: "The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House." And: "The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided."

And, just to turn the screw a bit more, Nate Silver of the New York Times gives Five Reasons the Republicans could do even better.
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