interviews some Dems on tomorrow's vote: "While
few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or
depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and
political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday -- the
consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60
there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that the
electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said those
conversations don't take place anymore."
The latest Gallup Poll
confirms their mood: "The final USA Today
/Gallup measure of Americans' voting
intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead
over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that
regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to
give them the majority in the U.S. House." And: "The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds
52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42%
for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on
turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout
from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent
years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic
ballot, with 5% undecided."
And, just to turn the screw a bit more, Nate Silver of the New York Times gives Five Reasons the Republicans
could do even better.