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Merry Christmas Cowgirl

Regular commenter cowgirl is a fan of Herman Cain, so here is Dave Weigel's blog post on Cain's possible (maybe more than possible) presidential campaign.  I think Cain has a chance to win support from the Tea Party populist/authentic conservative/not-a-2008-retread market, but I don't see him winning enough support to be a real threat to win the nomination.  I think Mike Pence and Cain will compete for a lot of the same voters and Pence will win more.  For one thing, Cain has the same FairTax problem as Huckabee but without Huckabee's name recognition.  Cain could win enough votes to deny Pence some crucial early victories and thereby help throw the election to one of the currently better known candidates (like Romney or Huckabee - or Palin if she runs) or to some establishment conservative candidate that party elites consolidate around (Thune?).
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Discussions - 9 Comments

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you Pete.

I saw this blog as well as listen to Hermain himself - he is moving between Iowa and New Hamsphire and has started an exploratory committee for a run in 2012. I get regular updates from Cain so none of this is a surprise, but thanks for the update.

Just remember - The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet. Obama was a nobody in 2007. You might want to wander over to his website and watch a 1994 video of Herman and Bill Clinton discussing Hillary-care. Herman wiped Bill Clinton up with not only a mop, but a couple of dish rags. If Herman can do this to Clinton, just image what he can do with Obama, Huckabee, Romney, etc.

You have a safe holiday and God Bless you and your family and loved ones..

Palin seems to be working to undo the character assassination that did her in among independents. I believe that in all she does she places the national interest above her own, and if she concludes that she can't make sufficient inroads among independents to win the general, I believe she will endorse someone.

Obviously, such an endorsement would be a major factor in the primaries. She was kingmaker in the 2010 Congressional primaries, why not again? From among the available choices, Cain would be an excellent and consistent choice for her to make. He surpasses Pence in executive and real world experience as well.

Same to you and yours cowgirl.

By early 2007 Obama had already written a huge bestselling campaign biography and was polling in the upper tier among those Democrats who actually ran. The best analogy to Obama would be a Palin or Romney but with somewhat lower name recognition but also lower negatives. The current race lacks a Hillary Clinton-type frontrunner for really good comparison, but Obama was an upper tier candidate in ways that Cain isn't.

That doesn't mean Cain is doomed to obscurity. There is room for an authentic and fresh conservative populist candidate. I just think that other candidates will do a better job of filling that void. His record as a businessman is a big plus, but if he does emerge as a credible candidate for the nomination (in the sense of the race coming down to Cain vs. One Other Candidate and the race being really close) I think the FairTax sinks him

Sorry, Pete, but I just have to disagree with you on the Fair Tax issue.

First of all, the states that just received additional representatives in Congress are all red states - states free of overwhelming taxes, regulations and entitlements (think CA as 80,000 Californians have migrated to Texas since 2007). People are voting with their feet - read my feet - no new taxes.

Second, overall people were disgusted with how Democrats caused class-warfare on rich Americans with their complete screw up of extending the Bush Tax Cuts.

Third, people are tired of irresponsible use of their tax money -specifically how debt many cities, states and counties along with the federal government are in debt for huge salaries and pensions of government workers (again think California). Less taxes means that government workers will have to learn to live like the rest of us.

Herman Cain is very intelligent, experienced businesman, and very articulate and extremely knowledgeable about the interworkings of our government. He also has a talent for explaining economics 101 and oh yeah that the Constitution does not provide a Department of Happiness - that is your responsibility - he is saying the right things and knows the path we need to take to get this country back on it's feet. Romney, Huckabee, etc. are Republican good ole boys. Cain is like Palin - refreshing. My hope with Cain is that he will become like Palin - Living Rent Free in Liberals Minds.

cowgirl, I don't see how the November election results or the pattern of internal migration over the last ten years indicate public supprt for a 30 percent federal sales tax. I just don't see evidence for what amounts to a middle-class tax hike and a huge tax cut on the wealthy (who have more room to adjust consumption.) I guess you could avoid a middle-class tax increase by making the prebate bigger or setting the sales tax rate lower but that would probably result in sharply lower revenues. I don't doubt that much of the public would like cuts in domestic discretionary spending, but as AD has repeatedly pointed out the real problem of the budget is with middle-class entitlements for the elderly and changes to those programs can only be phased in slowly. You won't fix the problems caused by sharply lower tax revenues by cutting the pay of FDA meat inspectors or even shutting down several government departments. So a FairTax results in either

a) a middle-class tax hike
b) Sharp and immediate cuts in Social Security Medicare, and national defense.
c) An even bigger run-up in the national debt and maybe a sovereign default

The good news for Cain is that the FairTax only becomes a problem for him if he is doing real well and is seen as having a realistic possibility of winning the nomination. For Cain's sake, I hope he has more appeal to the median voter than Palin has right this moment

It is a fact that lower taxes create more revenue to the government. Higher taxes create economic disaster. We are in the middle of an economic disaster right now. The United States now has the highest corporate tax rate - higher than Japan and Sweden. Jobs are being shipped over seas daily from the US.

I agree that cutting a FDA meat inspector's salary would not make a dent in our deficit. However, getting rid of the Post Office - which lost $8 billion last year - would make a huge dent in the cost of government. UPS and FEDEX and any other contractor would do a better job. FYI - I work for a fortune 100 company that depends heavily on "mail" getting to clients on time. We never use the Post Office - we contract it all out so it will get there on time. Getting rid of the Department of Education would be another bonus and of course the FCC.

Again, the fat lady hasn't sung yet. Cain is only beginning. People are sick and tired of the status quo. An they will not elected another candidate running on the Hope and Change crap.

"Getting rid of the Department of Education would be another bonus and of course the FCC."

So very true, Squash!

http://www.ashbrook.org/congressionalacademy.html

"Spending twelve days in Washington, DC, students will immerse themselves in our nation's capitol as well as venturing out on day trips to historic Philadelphia and Gettysburg. All the while, they will gain insight in to America's past by visiting the actual locations of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the battlefields of Gettysburg where Lincoln grieved for our splintered nation, and the steps where Martin Luther King, Jr. cried out for the payment of an overdue promise.

With three vital documents, three powerful locations, and three decisive eras, the Congressional Academy demonstrates how events coupled with America's fundamental ideas shape our national identity, influence the debates over the challenges our nation faces today, and still remain at the heart of all political discussion. The Congressional Academy takes history out of textbooks and places it in their life, Martin Luther King, Jr.allowing them to understand that the choices made by our founders affect us today and will continue to affect our future.

Jeffrey Sikkenga, associate professor of political science at Ashland, will lead the Academy. He will be joined by two other Ashland University Faculty, Christopher Burkett and Kristofer Ray.

....

The Congressional Academy is funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Education. Students participating in the Academy may receive undergraduate credit from the Political Science department at Ashland University."

(I believe Mr. Schramm found a comfortable government job in the Dept. of Ed. within the tiny Reagan administration, too.)

But what will you do about wardrobe malfunctions if you abolish the FCC?

Have you been living in a cave for the past few years and know nothing about the state of our public schools systems? Here is a return on your education server:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/12/07/education/07education_graph.html?ref=education

Our education system is in the crapper. The Department of Education is welfare for government workers and a herd of sheeple to vote for the Democrats.

But what will you do about wardrobe malfunctions if you abolish the FCC?

Gosh you are as shallow as Charlie on Two and Half Men - Comparing a middle age washed up singer who gets her boob touched and flipped out by a younger man is not free speech - it is called desparation. You keep proving my point -liberalism is a mental illness.

cowgirl, it is a fact that nominal revenues have increased after some tax cuts but that doesn't mean that there was a revenue gain from where revenues would have been if the tax rates had stayed higher. Kevin Williamson addressed this in National Review http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/229574/goodbye-supply-side/kevin-williamson?page=1

There is such a thing as being on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve but most economists that I'm aware of don't think we are there in income taxes. You could raise revenue by cutting income tax rates while eliminating many deductions (the Deficit Commission suggested something like that), but the pushback against such a change (not all of it from self-described liberals) would be fierce. Proponents of the FairTax argue that it would take a 30 percent national sales tax to equal current revenues. Some critics suggest it would take an over 40 percent federal sales tax. You could probably reconfigure the tax code to be more investment-friendly without such a harshly regressive (and politically suicidal) policy.

There are all kinds of federal government activities that might well be privatized or eliminated. That would be nice, but our deficit problems would still remain http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2006/0215federalbudget_sawhill.aspx

That means we cannot have a sharp revenue decline without making immediate and irresponsible cuts to entitlements for the elderly and national defense or risking a sovereign default.

I don't mind Cain as a beginning as long as Bobby Jindal is who we end up with.

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