No Left Turns - The Ashbrook Center Blog

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Foreign Affairs

Remembering Sarkozy

At a time when many Americans felt down on the future of their country, French President Nicolas Sarkozy brightened their spirits in this stirring address before Congress. It reminded Americans of the uniqueness of their enterprise, and how foreigners admire us.
Categories > Foreign Affairs

Religion

A Primer on Middle East Democracy (Update)

Bob Reilly takes on neo-conservative Middle East expert Reuel Marc Gerecht in today's Wall Street Journal. Reilly points out that a presupposition of democracy is solution of the religious issue--that is, freedom of conscience. That is, the American model remains the most reasonable means of establishing democratic self-government.

UPDATE: The Reilly letter in op-ed form.

Categories > Religion

Foreign Affairs

Today's History Lesson

Looking for a cheap lunch at a favorite Vietnamese restaurant, got an education instead.

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Presidency

The Politics of the OBL Killing

What has been underappreciated about Obama's decision to kill bin Laden was that he had planned it out in his mind years before. During the 2008 campaign he made news--e.g., this commentary--by declaring he would not hesitate to violate Pakistan's sovereignty if necessary. Obama must have asked himself what he could do to project foreign policy strengths while maintaining internationalist credentials. The most politically popular goal was to get Osama, and he reverse-engineered how this might happen: increased drone strikes, for one. When intelligence connected enough dots, he made his move, and he won. This victory of course does not excuse a multitude of other sins, all intended to force America into multilateral agreements, even in a good cause (e.g., Libya). If anything, the killing of bin Laden is the exception that proves the rule about Obama's often feckless foreign policy.
Categories > Presidency

Foreign Affairs

Our "Waivering" President

Among the most egregious and apparently corrupt aspects of Obamacare is the widespread waivers which excuse Obama's allies and big donors from complying with the more burdensome and expensive regulations of the act. Not only does this represent political cronyism at its worst, but it also presents an unparalleled intrusion of governmental favoritism into private financial markets. Obama has effectively told America that any business or corporation which doesn't support his party will be punished with targeted regulation to which their left-leaning competitors will be excused.

Now comes confirmation that Obama has given a waiver to another liberal darling: Palestine. The Palestinian Accountability Act stipulates that "no funds available to any United States Government department or agency ... may be obligated or expended with respect to providing funds to the Palestinian Authority." Congress froze $192 in aid when Palestine petitioned the UN to recognize Palestinian statehood last year - that was shortly after it was revealed that Palestine was using U.S. aid dollars to pay the "salaries" of Arabs imprisoned in Israel for terrorism.

Obama has now given Palestine a waiver, excusing them from U.S. law.

The AFP news agency quoted White House spokesman Tommy Vietor as saying the $192 million aid package would be devoted to "ensuring the continued viability of the moderate PA government under the leadership of [Palestinian Authority] President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad."

So Obama is defying - that is, waiving - American law in order to benefit Palestine in their hour of antagonism toward America. One is left to wonder which moderate PA government policies Obama hopes to keep viable through American funding.
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Foreign Affairs

Confidence in New Europe

The Czech Republic survived a vote of no confidence on Friday, whereas the Romanian government has fallen. Both countries are implementing austerity measures which domestic leftist movements deeply oppose. (Sound familiar?) The Czech Republic has increased sales and income taxes and introduced modest university fees (which will likely never disappear, now that they have been successfully introduced - signaling an end to "free" college education). They have also proposed deep spending cuts.

Romania, on the other hand, has failed to accept austerity measures and courts political chaos.

Romania took a €20 billion ($26 billion) bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the World Bank in 2009 when its economy shrank 7 percent. The government has hiked the sales tax to 24 percent and slashed public sector wages by one-fourth in 2010 to meet the conditions of the loan, angering many Romanians.

The IMF and European Commission said in a statement they expected Romania to "continue to observe its economic policy commitments to its international partners."

Whether Romania will comply with the former government's international obligations is an interesting question. And whether Romania presents a potential trend of ruling party collapses is another interesting question. The Czechs seem to have barely avoided such a fate, but France seems likely to depose Sarkozy in light of the continuing fiscal crises and subsequent French unemployment. With Spain at 24% unemployment and Greece still circling the drain, Europe remains a fragile enterprise.
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Foreign Affairs

Syria's in Trouble Now!

The New York Times reports:

U.N. Security Council Unanimously Agrees to Send More Observers to Syria

The UN also demands an immediate halt to the violence that has been steadily escalating since the UN's cease-fire took effect last week.

If Syria doesn't mind it's P's and Q's, the UN may be forced to send them a strongly worded letter.
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Foreign Affairs

If You Lie Down With Dogs . . .

Cristina Kirchner's Argentina is a socialist-lite South American dictatorship-in-the-making - a country increasingly modeled after Hugo Chavez's full-fledged socialist dictatorship in Venezuela. As a soft-socialist, Kirchner has nationalized sparingly - relying instead upon onerous regulation and government interference in the private sector in order to ensure "social democracy." As of late, however, her ambitions have been less subtle.

Facing intense criticism over the nationalization of its biggest oil firm, Argentina on Thursday ordered the seizure of YPF Gas, another group controlled by Spain's Repsol, a move expected to further inflame tensions.

When criticized for expropriating an oil firm, respond by seizing a gas firm. That'll teach 'em.

The move postures Argentina in direct conflict with Spain, the U.S., the EU and the IMF. But such is par for the course for socialist regimes - when the going gets tough, take what belongs to someone else. As Margaret Thatcher was fond of saying, "The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." Others would do well to stop placing their money within Ms. Kirchner's reach.

In fact, that same principle may apply to those in America who have a penchant for spending other people's money.
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Foreign Affairs

War is Still the Answer

The world is a scary place. Within the last week or so, North Korea tried to shoot a nuclear-capable rocket over my head, India boasted the ability to nuke China's major cities and the Sudanese have fully embraced a quasi-civil-war. It seems that arms races, whether high tech or low, are still the means by which countries seek to resolve differences and strategically position themselves for international diplomacy.

I believe it is safe to say that the UN has been an unmitigated failure in its primary mission to achieve world peace. Of course, that was a tall order to begin with. The EU has been generally stable in Western and Central Europe - although, following the two world wars for which that area is chiefly responsible, they were due for a few years of peace and we should wait a little longer to determine if theirs is to be an enduring peace. It is a fretful thought to consider that modern terrorism has not actually replaced traditional nation-based warfare, only accentuated and complemented it.

The world presently attempts to provide disincentives for arms-races and war-like aggression in the form of sanctions, but they have proved largely ineffective. Sanctions often weigh heaviest on the weak and ignorant. Further, poverty breeds desperation. It has always been rich and powerful nations which (after a bit of conquering and colonization) have instituted lasting peace. Such is was during the Pax Romana, Pax Ecclesiae and Pax Britannica. Attempts to equalize nations - or, in Obama's words, to level the playing field - foolishly seek to depress nations into a posture ripe for conflict.

Until we find a better trans-national solution or men are ruled by their better angels, my hope for world peace remains the pragmatic Pax Americana. Our abdication of the leading role in peace-keeping through superior diplomatic, economic and military power destabilizes global truces and imperils world peace. America as "world policeman" is still the best option on the table.
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Foreign Affairs

How Covert Can It Be...?

... if the CIA is publicly "seeking authority to expand its covert drone campaign in Yemen?"

Shhhhh . . . maybe we're assuming Yemeni terrorists can't read.

Of genuine interest, however, is the requested expansion of the CIA's authority to launch "strikes against terrorism suspects even when it does not know the identities of those who will be killed."

Securing permission to use these "signature strikes" would allow the agency to hit targets based solely on intelligence indicating patterns of suspicious behavior, such as imagery showing militants gathering at known al-Qaeda compounds or unloading explosives.

But don't go thinking we're entering a brave new world or anything.

The practice has been a core element of the CIA's drone program in Pakistan for several years.
I wonder if that's also a covert action.

Obama's declined such a request last year, but seems poised to acquiesce in light of the troop draw-downs in the Middle East. Yet "signature strikes" against unidentified persons was certainly not on Obama's to-do list when he ran for president. It's good to see a liberal "evolve" in office in the "right" direction, for once.

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Foreign Affairs

Burmese Spring?

Limited elections in Burma have nearly unanimously rewarded the opposition democratic party and an iconic Burmese leader. According to Slate:

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, is on track to win at least 43 of the 44 contested seats in Burma's historic parliamentary by-elections.

However, sober observers remind that the road to democracy is long and winding for Burma.

One by-elections, in other words, will not plant the seed for Asia's version of Nelson Mandela's Truth and Reconciliation Commission. If this be a revolution, it will not be in the mold of South Africa. Certainly not of the Philippines, Indonesia, or the Czech Republic. But in a society heavily into astrology and karma, heaven help the junta, neither will it be of the Arab Spring.

Burma remains one of the most benighted lands on Earth, but any erosion of the ruling junta's power is a good thing. These electoral successes, while meager, will hopefully lead to a continuing democratic movement.
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Foreign Affairs

Mass Taliban Protest Hopes to Overrun America's Borders

Thousands are expected to participate in the Global March to Washington organized by pro-Taliban organizations abroad that have called on protesters to march on America's borders Friday as part of Land Day demonstrations opposing American policies.

No, not really. That sort of headline and story couldn't possibly be true. Not in America. But exchange the words Taliban with Arab / Palestinian and America / Washington with Israel / Jerusalem, and you have a Washington Times' story on the situation in the Middle East this week.

The Arabs / Palestinians planning to overrun Israel's boarder have the same intentions toward Israel as the Taliban has toward the U.S. How would you suggest America react if the parody news story above were true and the Taliban were amassing on our border (mortars in hand, no doubt)? Now reflect that this is not a hypothetical question for Israel.
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Military

Podcast and Colloquium with David Tucker

I recorded a podcast last week with David Tucker who has been visiting Ashland for most of the past six months or so.  We discussed many things, but primarily his new book, Illuminating the Dark Arts of War: Terrorism, Sabotage, and Subversion in Homeland Security and the New Conflict.

David also discussed these issues with the Ashbrook Scholars on Friday at a colloquium.  They, too, had a good conversation which you can listen to here.

Categories > Military

Foreign Affairs

Netanyahu on Iran

Last May, I posted a video of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech before a joint session of Congress. I called it "an excellent American speech contemplating democracy and liberty." Netanyahu is a patriot of his county and a man for all seasons.

Yesterday, Netanyahu spoke before AIPAC (text). His subject was Iran and his words are both serious and credible. This is the issue of our day, whether we choose to accept it or not.

H/t: Power Line.

P.S. The letters of 1944 between the World Jewish Congress and the U.S. War Department from which Netanyahu reads can be found here.  

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Foreign Affairs

Name That Attorney General

U.S. military and intelligence agencies can legally kill American citizens overseas if they are al Qaeda leaders who pose an imminent threat to the United States and cannot be captured.

If you attribute the sentiment to George W. Bush-appointed attorneys general John Ashcroft, Alberto Gonzales or Michael Mukasey, you're barking up the wrong tree. The ultra-conservative, unilateralist, war-mongering thesis belongs to none other than Obama's own Eric Holder.

His comments mark the first time that a Cabinet member has addressed directly the legal justification for last year's U.S. drone strike on American-born radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

I have been critical of Holder's tenure as attorney general, particularly in regard to his seemingly racist view of civil rights in light of the Black Panthers litigation, his politically-motivated opposition to Arizona's immigration law and the still-stonewalled Fast and Furious debacle. His arrogance and thin-skinned spitefulness have also failed to ingratiate the man to my fond reflections.

But today - to the dismay of liberals everywhere - Holder is correct.

"'Due process' and 'judicial process' are not one and the same, particularly when it comes to national security," Mr. Holder said. "The Constitution guarantees due process, not judicial process."

Holder went so far as to confirm pre-emptive drone attacks against American citizens anywhere in the world as necessary and constitutional:

"When such individuals take up arms against this country - and join al Qaeda in plotting attacks designed to kill their fellow Americans - there may be only one realistic and appropriate response.  We must take steps to stop them - in full accordance with the Constitution.  In this hour of danger, we simply cannot afford to wait until deadly plans are carried out - and we will not."

Like military tribunals and enhanced interrogation techniques, pre-emptive strikes are just the latest example of Obama's grudging adoption of Bush-era policies for the Global War on Terror. Not that Obama will admit - or the media will report - this continuing trend. The only question remains: Did Obama know that he was lying when he criticized these policies as a candidate, or was he truly so naive that he wasn't aware that they were necessary for American national security?

For a fine dissection of Holder's speech, see Lawfare's commentary.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Hungarian Derangement Syndrome

In a post entitled Hungary's New Clothes, I noted that Hungary was adopting a new constitution to mixed reviews.

Proponents celebrate the document as a final break with Hungary's communist past, whereas critics argue it establishes an authoritarian regime in Europe.

Since that time, liberal alarmists have increasingly raised the pitch of their screeching accusations of tyrannical autocracy, even as Hungary's governing conservative party (and proponent of the new constitution) has proved rather moderate and democratic. At NRO, Mario Smith observes that liberals have now gone round the bend in their absurd obsession with Hungary's conservative majority.

In stark contrast to the Left's timidity in the face of actual authoritarian regimes such as China and Russia, the liberal media's treatment of Hungary has aggressively crossed the line. Paul Krugman ... foresaw a post-Soviet "re-establishment of authoritarian rule" in Hungary. The British Guardian fell into line, describing Hungary's new prime minister, Viktor Orbán, as an "autocratic leader." The Washington Post, not to be outdone, compared Hungary to Belarus and Putin's Russia. Not long after, and with great satisfaction, Hungarian émigré professor Charles Gati announced in an op-ed in the Times that Hungary is "no longer a Western-style democracy." Having been drummed out of the West by left-wing editorialists, Hungary became fair game for the next phase of the liberal crusade: U.S. intervention. Slander has turned into absurd policy prescriptions, intent on destroying one of the most electorally effective center-right parties in Europe.

A central pillar of Obama's foreign policy is the self-determination of peoples - that is, a restraint on arrogant (especially unilateral) attempts to force our way of life on other people. Liberals took sacred oaths to the doctrine of political non-intervention during the Bush years. But in the case of a relatively stable Western democracy which has simply decided to enact conservative policies, lofty principles are suddenly worthless and liberals are comfortable attempting to disrupt another country's domestic politics and influence a democratic election.

As Vernon Lowe correctly observes, Hungary's conservative government has become a whipping boy for the international liberal punditocracy, which sees a fascist tyrant lurking underneath every coffee table with a Bible on top.

Yes, Hungary's constitution has embraced the country's heritage of Christianity, defined marriage in a traditional way, and proclaimed that life begins at conception. Hungary's constitution also introduced a debt cap and reaffirmed Hungary's 700-year-old forint as the national currency, to the chagrin of Brussels. These provisions reflect values held by most Hungarians and are therefore appropriately secured in their fundamental law. That Hungarians have decided to protect their traditional values unsurprisingly rankles the sensibilities of liberal pundits and bureaucrats in Europe and America, but it is hardly cause for crying "Dictatorship!"

The article accurately concludes that "the actual leftist mission" is "stamping out conservative parties in Central and Eastern Europe altogether."

Krugman and crew are calling for the American government to take an active role in usurping Hungarian politics, simply to ensure the election of a liberal party. This is a stunning disrespect toward Hungary's sovereignty - which liberals obviously feel is in violation of some unwritten, progressive international norm which requires all nations to continuously list leftward. Nations which stray from this path are obviously the "rogue" nations of the liberal world order and undeserving of basic international rights. This is just another glimpse of "internationalism" under liberal supervision - which is really nothing more than a supra-national means of forcing progressivism on uncooperative nations.  

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Foreign Affairs

Berlusconied, Again

RONLT (Readers of NLT) know that I am helpless to resist the ever-evolving comedia of Silvio Berlusconi. I once proffered that his name would go down in history as a shorthand verb:

To Berlusconi: To act in the most egregiously juvenile manner while in a position of utmost authority without ever suffering the slightest consequences.

Well, he's done it again:

An Italian court on Saturday dismissed a corruption case against Silvio Berlusconi, ruling that the statute of limitations had expired on charges that the Italian billionaire allegedly paid his lawyer to give false testimony in the 1990s to shield him from prosecution.

Try to keep this in perspective. As the paper notes:

Over his 18 years in politics, Mr. Berlusconi has survived dozens of criminal investigations and many trials. In some trials, he was acquitted while in other trials the statute of limitations expired.

Of course, il caveliere lost his hold on the reigns of political power in November. Yet his personal powers of evasion still seem strong. I think that Italy and the world have not seen the last of Berlusconi - and it is a more interesting place for him.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Presidency

In Defense of Bush's National Security Policy

Steve Knott, who teaches at the Naval War College, has just published Rush to Judgment: George W. Bush, the War on Terror, and His Critics, which offers a vigorous defense of President Bush's national security policies. Knott (who teaches in the MAHG program) argues that the assessment of any presidency requires a "decent interval" before judgment can be pronounced.

I've read all of Steve's books (though not the Don Knotts book in the link) and respect his scholarship and judgment greatly.  He certainly picks his books' subjects well: Reagan, Hamilton, and covert actions. This is the defense Bush and his team should have been giving when they had the power (and the duty) to do so. Their failure to do so has led to cynicism in the public, the Obama election, the rise of Ron Paul, and decline in support for the vigorous foreign policy our country requires today. May Knott's work reverse these trends and advance prudence in politics.

Categories > Presidency

Foreign Affairs

No Egyptian Hostage Crisis for Obama

There had better not be, after this $1.3 billion payoff. But this is a great opportunity for other countries around the world, pre-election. Obama is imitating Carter but would rather avoid this Iranian hostage comparison. "President Barack Obama asked that military aid to Egypt be kept at the level of recent years -- $1.3 billion -- despite [sic! because of] a crisis triggered by an Egyptian probe targeting American democracy activists."
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Foreign Affairs

Germany's Eastern Policy ... in Central Europe

The Economist runs an article citing that "Germany's eastern policy has never been stronger." I've long been an advocate of a New European reorganization which promotes Central Europe as a pro-American, fiscally-responsible political bloc between the Old Europe of the west and Russia's continuing sphere of influence in the east. I thus find it promising that Germany - the unrivaled engine of the European economy - "trades more with Poland's healthy economy than it does with Russia's sickly one" and that "once-communist countries such as the Czech Republic are closely linked to German industry's supply chains--more so, in fact, than some 'western' neighbours like Belgium or Denmark."

Of course, the nations of an emerging Central Europe are diverse and often raise competing interests - as the article aptly notes. But of particular interest is this note on influences across Europe:

Also waning is American power. The Obama administration's explicit reorientation towards Asia and military withdrawal from Europe is eroding old Atlanticist loyalties.

The result of America's power vacuum is that it "gives Germany more diplomatic space." And insofar as German entanglements continue to shift eastward, the strengthening center of Europe could prove greatly to America's interest. This is a win-win situation for the U.S., which can take a laissez-faire approach to Europe and still end up with a pro-American result. All we must do to seize this opportunity is to not actually antagonize our would-be allies - a feat which has thus far proved beyond Obama's ability.

P.S. The title of the article is "Love in a Cold Climate." Fittingly so. Here is Prague:

Prague.jpg

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Our Lincoln Memorial, Iran's Cardboard

This is the Iran now arming itself with nukes. The ceremony led me to think about University College London having preserved Jeremy Bentham's body. And we do have those races around the Washington Nationals' stadium featuring giant dolls of Washington, Jefferson, LIncoln, and TR. No worries.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Chinese New Year

Since we're observing the Lunar New Year, the situation in China merits a few remarks. Gary Locke is a bit of a rock star in China. Not only is he the first U.S. Ambassador to China of Chinese ancestry, but his non-rock-star persona strikes a chord with the Chinese people.

Locke's popularity here among ordinary Chinese ... has as much to do with his unassuming nature -- his ordinariness -- as his Chinese looks and background. Even before he arrived, Locke was photographed with his daughter at the Seattle airport, sporting a backpack and trying to pay for his coffee with a coupon.

Since then, Locke "sightings" have included the ambassador flying in economy class, buying ice cream with his daughter in the Sanlitun neighborhood of Beijing, and waiting in line with his family alongside tourists for a seat on a cable car descending from the Great Wall.

The reason for the fascination, many here posit, is that when Chinese look at this backpack-toting American envoy with a Chinese face, they see everything their own leaders are not -- leaving authorities struggling for how best to respond to his increasingly evident popularity

"Struggling" Chinese authorities are unlikely to be further enamored with Locke for his most recent statements describing China's political structure as "very, very delicate." While Locke notes that "calls earlier this year for a Jasmine Revolution" ultimately came to nothing, the people are increasingly willign to demonstrate and oppose the government - and a "significant, internal" event could have the power to spark an upheaval.

Locke said that since he took over the ambassadorship from former GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, he has become aware of public demonstrations large and small throughout China that ordinary people were using to pressure the government to address their grievances. He singled out a recent protest in the southern Chinese city of Wukan over the confiscation of land without reasonable compensation.

"[The people] basically prevented anybody from the outside from coming in and brought the city to a halt and forced the Chinese government communist leaders to send people to address their grievances," Locke said.

Of course, this growing unrest has been accompanied by a steep decline in China's commitments to human rights and the rule of law. Hope and courage - the promises for 2012, the Year of the Dragon - may be absolutely necessary for the Chinese in the months to ahead.

P.S. All of the above may seem more relevant in light of Peter Kiernan new book, "Becoming China's Bitch." Kiernan was recently interviewed by Foreign Policy - the intro is below.

The year 2012 will see a stream of new books in the patented Thomas Friedman "Oh My God the Chinese Are Eating Our Lunch with Environmentally Friendly Chopsticks" mold. Some will be more worthwhile than others. One book in particular, however, is sure to stand out, if only for the title: "Becoming China's Bitch: And Nine More Catastrophes We Must Avoid Right Now." 

The author, Peter D. Kiernan, a former partner at Goldman Sachs, explains in the introduction that "it's not a book about China exactly. It's about how America got diverted and lost momentum, and a dragon leapt into the breach. It's also about getting our mojo back."

Perhaps a must read for 2012.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Lunar New Year

Korean Lunar New Year.jpg

Korea is celebrating Seollal, the Lunar New Year, today. It is a very traditional holiday marked by a mass migration out of the cities toward ancient homelands in the surrounding rural hills. The Koreans pay homage to their ancestors and spend the day with their elders. Some still wear traditional garb and the country is practically swimming in a traditional rice cake soup called Tteokguk. They are a wonderfully traditional people.

Also, according to my Korean friends - and to the dismay of many local Western females - today is our lunar birthday and we have all turned one year older. Luckily, westerners are not required to age again on our biological birthdays! (Korean age reckoning is interesting, by and by. They count conception as the beginning of life - newborns are thus considered to be one year old.)

2012 is the Year of the Dragon and hence promises hope and courage. (Fortune and superstition are also important to Koreans.) So, in the customary manner, I say: saehae bok mani badeuseyo - Receive many New Year blessings.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Churchill Center in DC

A National Churchill Library and Center will open at George Washington University, beginning in 2013. They'd better have that bust that Obama returned. It claims to be the first American research center devoted to Sir Winston (ignoring claims The Claremont Institute might care to make)..
Categories > Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

George Kennan Faces the Music

One of the most insightful books I read as a student is George Kennan's Memoirs. Now we have quite possibly the definitive biography.  Jim Piereson reviews John Lewis Gaddis. His thoughtful conclusion: Kennan was "an independent thinker of the first order who, at a critical moment in history, saw something clearly that others saw but through a haze, and by an act of singular intellectual courage earned absolution for any misjudgments he may have subsequently committed."

I prefer the late Bill Rood's harsher formulation, in "The Naivete of George Kennan".  His last two paragraphs:

George Kennan's apparent intention in writing his book, The Fateful Alliance, is to demonstrate through historical reference the necessity to avoid conflict. One's judgment of the book should turn less, then, on its value as history, than upon George Kennan's value as a guide through the intricacies of international politics.

If you read The Fateful Alliance, think of the Czech Jew going out "to face the music," of Comrade Litvinov forced by the circumstances of his birth to be foreign minister of the Soviet Union instead of a librarian, and judge whether Professor Kennan is a suitable guide to the cataclysmic struggle that is in progress around the world, the "struggle between two world systems." It seems George Kennan would urge us to be tolerant of those who lead the Soviet Union while they make the best of the circumstances into which they were born; and we in our turn may have the opportunity to go out and face the music.

Categories > Foreign Affairs

The Founding

Hungarian Revolution for us

We need our Hungarian (Constitutional) Revolution here. In the last moments of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution the rebel radio broadcast the Gettysburg Address in seven languages, before the Soviets extinguished the freedom movement. Now a free Hungary is giving America some inspiration.
Categories > The Founding

Military

Obama's Risky Defense Policy

Naval War College Professor Mac Owens reminds us in the WSJ today that "any war plan that depends on the cooperation of the enemy is likely to fail."  The Obama Administraton's defense spending cuts assume principal threats from Asia.  This departure from the "strategic pluralism" designed to account for uncertainty of threats instead invites enemies to exploit our weaknesses.
Categories > Military

Race

The French Get Patriotic

As a typical conservative, I'm rather fond of patriotism and generally dissent from the "blame Amerikkka" crowd. And while I subscribe to a strain of American exceptionalism, I find patriotism in those of other nations to be highly commendable. In particular, I think Europeans are often lacking in national pride - leading to the sort of cultural drift currently observed in many northern European countries.

On the other hand, the last time France took a stab at patriotic nationalism, they ended up with the Reign of Terror. So, while I commend the latest attempt by the French to introduce substantive prerequisites to French naturalization, I do so with slight hesitation. According to France 24:

Foreigners seeking French nationality face tougher requirements as of January 1, when new rules drawn up by Interior Minister Claude Guéant come into force.

Candidates will be tested on French culture and history, and will have to prove their French language skills are equivalent to those of a 15-year-old mother tongue speaker. They will also be required to sign a new charter establishing their rights and responsibilities.

"Becoming French is not a mere administrative step. It is a decision that requires a lot of thought", reads the charter, drafted by France's High Council for Integration (HCI). 

Residing in Asia, I'm accustomed to rather strict naturalization laws. Viewing nationality as primarily a matter of blood, many Asian countries take a dim view of non-ethnic naturalization (excepting mixed-marriages) and simply forbid dual-citizenship. The thin-skinned may sense a pervasive racism in such sentiments, but there is an undeniable and obvious truth in the assertion that I, for example, am simply not Asian.  

America, of course, occupies the opposite end of the spectrum and is rather exceptional with regard to citizenship. We alone in the world are truly a nation of immigrants and boast no purely ethnic component to citizenship. History has rarely witnessed such a national condition, and never upon so broad a scale. We are truly unique.   

Immigration has never been my hot-button issue. Illegal immigration is certainly objectionable, but I can't passionately condemn something that I might very well attempt myself (for the safety and prosperity of my family) were I born into radically different circumstances. I see American citizenship as a privilege which should be available to those possessed of a certain American patriotism and willingness to adopt American culture (i.e., our language and basic civil and moral virtues). Immigration and citizenship are practical matters to me, best determined by balancing national interest with the circumstance of the applicant.

Yet America's immigration discussion generally encompasses Mexicans and the occasional Latin American. France is facing culture-altering waves of Muslim immigrants who have no will to adopt Western culture.

Guéant, a member of President Nicolas Sarkozy's ruling UMP party, described the [naturalization] process as "a solemn occasion between the host nation and the applicant", adding that migrants should be integrated through language and "an adherence to the principals, values and symbols of our democracy". He stressed the importance of the secular state and equality between women and men: rhetoric perceived largely as a snipe at Muslim applicants, who make up the majority of the 100,000 new French citizens admitted each year.

France's interior minister has made it clear that immigrants who refuse to "assimilate" into French society should be denied French citizenship.

Earlier this year, Guéant intervened personally to ensure an Algerian-born man living in France was denied French nationality because of his "degrading attitude" to his French wife.

That followed an earlier push by France's former Immigration Minister Eric Besson to revise existing laws in order to strip polygamists of their acquired citizenship.

France is correct in all of this. While Sarkozy is accused of "pandering to the right," he has a responsibility to uphold the basic laws and ethics of France. There is always a danger of such sentiments degrading into ethnic, religious or other forms of prejudice, but the alternate extreme of cultural abandonment is equally perilous. Nations must stand for something, and France is finally standing for something worthwhile.

Categories > Race

Foreign Affairs

Caesars are just Men

Caesars throughout history have often argued that the stability they bring proves their necessity in ruling. History, of course, shows that this has been a tremendous lie, for the reign of kings has been the greatest source of war and violence in our world. Though a Caesar may reign over peace and prosperity, mankind has the greatly important aspect of mortality assigned to it, and those Caesars eventually die. Occasionally their deaths can be followed by a peaceful transition of power, but this is very much the exception and not the rule. The promise of the United States, upon which the arguments for the exceptionalism of our Founding rely, is that by trusting in the better nature of men to govern themselves while containing the ambition of men with the rule of law, we can maintain peace and prosperity with both liberty and longevity. Our experiment in this line of thinking has been mostly successful, beginning with the voluntary retirement of George Washington and then the peaceful transfer of power from Adams to Jefferson. Our one failing in this formula has been the Civil War, but that particular conflict was unique in that it was not a fight over just who would rule, but what the principle behind their rule would be: the principle of equality, or the principle of kings--that is, the long-held principle of inequality. In that line, then, our Civil War was, as some have argued, more a continuation of the work of the American Revolution than something like the civil wars that wrack other nations.

During the Cold War, another war rooted, however muddled at times, in principle, new Caesars rose around the globe to fill the void left by the waning empires of Europe in the wake of the Second World War. Most of these men came to power in the poorer corners of the world, promising their citizens peace in exchange for liberty, ruling throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Even after the Soviet Empire collapsed, many of these men maintained their position and were seen by the West as necessary evils to maintain global stability and help advance our own security. Unable to change them, we thought that if we just contained them through the use of both carrots and sticks that peace could be kept, with only occasionally lashing out at those we perceived as crossing the line (and this we did not stick to all the time, as evidenced by Iran getting off free after sacking our embassy and North Korea's petulant acts over the past several years going unchecked). The year 2011, however, has been a forced reminder in why the promise of peace from Caesars is always a lie--for they are but mortal men, and men die.

Moammar Gaddafi's decades-long rule came to an end with him being dragged through the streets and sodomized before choking on his own blood. Hosni Mubarak is at the mercy of an Egyptian court as it determines whether or not to find him guilty of crimes and have him executed. Bashar al-Assad is literally at war with his own people, killing thousands in his frantic quest to maintain power. The House of Saud, the most absolute and stable of monarchies, is trying to do what it can to stem the spread of the Arab Spring into its own borders, but its future is uncertain now that the King's heir apparent has died and been replaced by a conservative hardliner unlikely to embrace reforms. The aged Robert Mugabe has cancer, and will likely be dead within the next two years, and Fidel Castro is reaching the end of the road as well. And now Kim Jong-Il, the mad ruler of North Korea and most cruel dictator of our time, has died of a heart attack, the Korean Peninsula being mired in confusion as the world tries to determine if his son, Kim Jong-Un, or his brother-in-law, Chang Sung-taek, will assume power in the impoverished and oppressed Communist nation.

In some respects, the existence of these strongmen did help contribute to relative stability in the world following the end of the Cold War. Occasionally one tyrant would fall to be replaced by another over the past twenty years, and this could be easily contained, but fate has now seen to it that so many reigns came to an end at the same time. Having relied too much on the false promises of these Caesars to maintain peace over the past few decades, we have been caught unawares by this surge in instability. In the year 2012, the world is bound to suffer in a way unforeseen for some time the pains inflicted when men rule in lieu of laws, and when Caesars reign instead of equality in justice. As evidenced clearly in Syria, and disgustingly in Egypt, the fall of kings is almost always a messy affair. While we must not expend our blood and treasure in the pursuit of peace and justice all over the world, and the urge will be tough to fight given our predisposed love for those two ideas, we ought to use this tumult to pursue some good by encouraging the embrace of law and respect for human rights. We must also seek to ensure that we are protected in this new world as it is formed around us. As we go into an election year, our president and his would-be opponent must be constantly reminded of how dangerous, how important, and how opportune the fast-shifting sand of world politics is right now. We need someone who can articulate the idea of America, think in a truly strategic fashion, and best help us act as an example to others of why our principle is superior to those professed by the Kim Jong-Ils and other Caesars of the world. The world could use a city on a hill to look up to right now.
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Foreign Affairs

Havel RIP, the Declaration Lives

Following Justin's entry below, recall Vaclav  Havel's message to Congress: 

"Consciousness precedes being, and not the other way around, as the Marxists claim....

 "[Y]ou Americans should understand this way of thinking.  Wasn't it the best minds of your country, ... who wrote your famous Declaration of Independence...and who, above all, took upon themselves practical responsibility for putting them into practice?" 

A text of the speech can be found here; the links are unhelpful, though.

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Foreign Affairs

Mohamed Bouazizi

One year ago today, a 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire in the middle of the street outside of a Tunisian governor's office, igniting the Tunisian Revolution and the greater Arab Spring protests across the Middle East. For years the young fruit and vegetable salesman had been mistreated and abused by local police, and they were beginning to extort money from him and make his business impossible to run. After a local municipal official humiliated Bouazizi by publicly beating him and taking his electronic weighing scales away, he ran to the governor's office to complain and have his scales returned. When the governor refused to see him, Bouazizi bought a can of gasoline, stood outside of the governor's office, and lit himself ablaze with a match. His last words, shouted angrily at the symbol of the Tunisian government before him, were "How do you expect me to make a living?"

At the time, no one in these autocratic regimes nor in the West knew that one young man's self-immolation in a small town in Tunisia would so radically alter the geopolitics of our world and upend governments that had been in power for decades. After a few weeks in a coma in intensive care, Bouazizi died on New Years Eve. Two weeks after that, Tunisian President Ben Ali fled his country and ended his 23-year rule. Other dictators from Mubarak to Gaddafi would fall, and still others like Syria's Assad are fighting for their existence. The so-called Arab Spring is now a year old, and the fire is still raging and worthy of our intense attention. Fire, as we are learning, can be both a handy servant and a dangerous master. We must continue to hope that this Arab Spring improves the condition of man in the Middle East, but we must prepare for the alternative scenario that we are entering into a new, dangerous, and perplexing period of time in that ever-smoldering corner of the world.
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Foreign Affairs

Cameron Makes Bold Stand

British Prime Minister David Cameron is under fire from many corners of Europe and through much of the internationalist sphere for making a bold stand in defense of his nation's sovereignty. Even within his own Parliament and the British media he has come under hugely critical attacks, the future of his coalition government's reign coming under threat. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed before the Council of Europe a true fiscal union for the 27 member states, combining the fiscal powers of the continent in the hands of the European Commission in Brussels. It would allow the Union to enforce monetary policy--taxes and spending--throughout all of its members, effectively stripping the governments of those nations of one of their most basic functions. Germany has been the main muscle between this, believing that the best way for Europe to come out of its fiscal crisis is to enforce their strict budget discipline upon all of its nations. While I agree that German fiscal discipline ought to be a model, it ought not come at the price of sovereignty.

So, in order to preserve the power of the British people, David Cameron exercised his veto and halted the move towards fiscal union. Every nation in the European Union has the right to veto, and any major decision must be unanimous. 26 nations, some with reservations, voted in favor of Merkozy's proposal--only Britain stood apart. Cameron argued that the new treaty would have forced London's banks and financial services to become enslaved by various anti-competitive "harmonization" schemes in the EU; he sought exemptions for the UK from these taxes, but his wishes were denied. Now Eurocrats around the continent are accusing Britain of making the first step towards leaving the European Union, and British Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg, Cameron's coalition partner, has said that the Prime Minister is isolating and marginalizing the United Kingdom. The spokeswoman for the opposition Labour Party declared Cameron's veto to be "the biggest failure of peacetime diplomacy in more than half a century."

Despite this heavy barrage of criticism, the young prime minister remains unshaken. He has brought into question the moral legitimacy of granting Brussels direct power over the pocketbooks of Europe's people, and asked where sovereignty truly lies. For this he deserves respect and applause. He is not isolating his nation; Britain is more internationally integrated than it has been since the height of its empire, through trade, technology, and culture. They have done more to help European integration than most, and more important than this is the fact the Britain's foreign policy is not geared only towards the European Union--it maintains global relationships. The EU insists on putting up more trade barriers and subsidizing industries; Britain looks to trade around the world. In standing up for his people and their sovereignty, David Cameron is not leaving the European Union---the EU is leaving the United Kingdom. The real blame for the failure of the negotiations rests with Merkel and Sarkozy, who thrust upon Cameron a deal that they knew he and his people could not accept. For now, it seems, the British people agree with their Prime Minister. Hopefully, with their trust and affirmation, Cameron is able to hold the line. The Fiscal Union should be stopped.
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Foreign Affairs

Learning From Pearl Harbor

Herewith my annual plea that Roberta Wohlstetter's 1962 classic study, Pearl Harbor, be read by anyone interested in strategy, intelligence, and the post-9/11 world.  (Here's a link to the googlebooks version.)  As in 9/11, as Wohlstetter shows, U.S. leaders and military knew something was up, but the different "signals" were misinterpreted or not shared with other parts of the government.  And unanticipated Japanese technological progress (combined with boldness) made possible a stunning attack.  Try to track down her study of the Cuban missile crisis as well.

As I write this, I recall that the book was first called to my attention by the late Claremont professor Bill Rood.  It would be fitting if this and Roberta Wohlstetter's other work were recalled at the 2012 APSA at the Claremont Institute panels.

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Foreign Affairs

NAACP v. America

In its continuing campaign against Voter ID laws, and other laws, the NAACP has appealed to the United Nations.

The largest civil rights group in America, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), is petitioning the UN over what it sees as a concerted efforted to disenfranchise black and Latino voters ahead of next year's presidential election. . . .

According to The Guardian, the group complains that "34 states have introduced a requirement that voters carry photo ID cards on the day of the election itself."  Voter ID and other laws, such as laws that strip felons of the vote, at least for a time, are an affront to democracy, according to the NAACP:

Benjamin Jealous, the NAACP's president, said the moves amounted to "a massive attempt at state-sponsored voter suppression." He added that the association will be urging the UN "to look at what is a co-ordinated campaign to disenfranchise persons of colour."

So the NAACP is appealing to a non-democratic institution, and is attacking the American legal system, and American sovereignty, in the name of democracy?  How democratic do they think the world would be if the UN ran it?

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Foreign Affairs

Elections in Egypt

Front page in today's New York Times

"The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women's participation in voting or public life."

"Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats."

"The preliminary results extend the rising influence of Islamists across a region where they were once outlawed and oppressed by autocrats aligned with the West. Islamists have formed governments in Tunisia and Morocco. They are positioned for a major role in post-Qaddafi Libya as well. But it is the victory in Egypt -- the largest and once the most influential Arab state, an American ally considered a linchpin of regional stability -- that has the potential to upend the established order across the Middle East."  What was it we fought for, an elective despotism?
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Foreign Affairs

Bill Rood Would Have Smiled

Amateurs (Georgetown students) and an old Pentagon hand beat the professionals at scoping out Chinese nuclear strategy. Professor Bill Rood, the late teacher of international relations, would have approved of this use of his quaint methodology of reading the newspapers and other open sources and speculating on how the evidence fit Chinese interests.  Of note as well, toward the end, is the outrage among the leftist disarmament lobby. 
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Foreign Affairs

The Chinese Nobility

As hundreds of millions of Chinese toil under the feudalistic conditions of Communist China, an elite few live in the type of wealth that is rare even in the West. This Chinese class of "Princelings" preach the humble poverty of Mao to their brethren while maintaining a monopoly on power and high-end luxury cars. The heirs of China's revolutionary leaders find themselves with unparalleled wealth, and as the wheels of power begin to turn and a new generation steps up, it appears that the Mao's communist creation is set to be politically and commercially controlled by a group of elite families--who already hold a great deal of economic power and sway with the military.

However, as the Internet breaks down the bonds of ignorance and reveals the secrets of their masters, the Chinese people may start to grow disillusioned with the Party. Chinese leaders may continue to try to censor the Internet, but it is a dam with too many cracks in it to bring them solace forever. With economic conditions in Chinese localities deteriorating, and the Chinese people growing more aware of the types of lives the elite live, the Princelings may be in for a rocky rule. There is some cause for hope, though. Most of the Princelings coming to power now have sent all their children to Western schools, mostly in the United Kingdom and the United States. Perhaps there may be some true nobility grown among this group, and they can oversee some liberalization in China. We can pray.
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Foreign Affairs

Israeli Strike in Iran?

Looks like the Israelis are doing the West's work, according to this report from Oz, for at least the second time. 
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Foreign Affairs

This Isn't Good

On the heels of commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard--which, it is necessary to note, is controlled by the Ayatollah and not Ahmadinejad--saying that they will bomb NATO sites in Turkey should there be any move by another nation against Iran's nuclear facilities (a threat that they issued after a huge explosion damaged a missile site and killed their ballistic missile program's architect), the embattled Assad regime in Syria is turning its Russian-built SCUD missiles in Turkey's direction. Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty is still enough to terrify any non-suicidal entity not to attack a NATO member, right? As Iranian mobs assault the British embassy in Tehran, and as Assad continues his bloody crackdown despite the Arab League itself sanctioning him, one has to wonder if self-interest as we understand it is the guiding principle of these leaders or not.
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Foreign Affairs

Technocrats Fail to Fix Eurozone

In the wake of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's resignation, economist and former European Commissioner Mario Monti ascended to power. Monti's rise to lead Italy is remarkable in the fact that he has never won an election. As Berlusconi's rule came to a close, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano appointed Monti to parliament as a Senator-for-Life then asked him to lead the new Berlusconi-free government. Monti promised as premier a government of experts, a true technocracy tasked with solving the economic crisis threatening to sink Italy and tear down the rest of the Eurozone with it. So this unelected leader and his cabinet of other unelected officials were heralded by the powers-that-be in Europe as the saving grace for the Euro currency. It seems that technocracy needs to be made of sterner stuff, however, as the Italian economy continues to plummet and the Eurozone contagion is now starting to show drags upon the all-powerful German economy. Somewhere, probably in the midst of one of his depraved bunga bunga parties, Silvio Berlusconi--a man elected and reelected and, despite multiple opportunities, never voted out of office--is smirking at his technocratic replacements. Democracy was the last thing Italy had to sacrifice, and it appears to be failing miserably.

President Obama met with the leading bureaucrats of the European Union--European President Council Herman van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso (yes, Europe has two presidents)--at the White House, but the meeting did not provide anything of substance. Obama highlighted our vested interest in the success of Europe, and the EU leaders insisted that the problem will be resolved and brought up America's $15 trillion debt and the need to focus on that as well. Others do not share the optimism of Messrs. Van Rompuy and Barroso. The United Kingdom's Foreign Office is preparing for the collapse of the Eurozone and drawing up contingency plans to help Britons around the European Union in the event of riots consuming the European continent in the midst of a complete banking collapse. As American banks own a huge portion of European debt, there is certainly cause for concern among us as well. The economic forecast does not look good at all. It may be time for the American government and American banks to start taking measures to best protect us from the contagion contaminating Europe in order to try soften the blow when it comes.
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Foreign Affairs

Brussels Bureaucrats on Water

Deciding to look beyond massive problems like the increasingly possible extermination of the Euro, the collapse of the Eurozone economies, and the lack of soul and purpose being felt at the heart of the experiment in European union, the European Commission is rolling out a brand new set of regulations to be imposed upon its member states as laws. After three years of study and who knows how much funding, Brussels has dictated that water bottle producers may no longer say on their labels that water helps hydrate the body. If a producer claims this, they can face a fine and a two-year jail sentence. The British are, understandably, rather perturbed by this latest move by Brussels' bureaucrats, particularly since the British Department of Health recommends drinking 1.2 liters of water a day to avoid dehydration. However, if the European Commission commands that water is no longer a way to stay hydrated, then it must be so, conventional wisdom aside. I suppose there is no more reason, then, to have athletes drink water at European sporting events. This is obviously another reason to be skeptical about allowing a further transfer of power to the Brussels offices of the European Union.
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Foreign Affairs

Is Turkey Ready?

The successor to the great Ottoman Empire has long sought to regain its role as a regional power in both southeastern Europe and the Middle East. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has worked strategically to improve Turkey's relations with the powers of Europe, the Arab nations, the United States, and Israel. It wants to be powerful once more. However, trying to play such a balancing act may prove to be fatal to its "zero problems with neighbors" policy-- in the past few years, all of Erdogan's maneuvering has been challenged. Hopes of Turkish acceptance into the European Union have been all-but-vanquished. Kurdish separatists are causing problems on the Turkey-Iraq border, which has prompted Turkish invasions into Northern Iraq, complicating relations with both that country and the United States. Relations between Israel and Turkey are now at one of their lowest points in years. As Iran continues to pursue the atom bomb, Turkey has accepted part of NATO's missile shield, roughening relations there. And the nations of Syria and Turkey are practically involved in a war against each other as the former regime massacres thousands of its citizens in reaction to the Arab Spring.

With Europe paralyzed by its own crises, the United States weary of wars in the Middle East, and Israel settings its guns on Iran, the issue of Syria rests in Turkey's court. If they are to be a resurgent power, handling Bashar al-Assad is going to be their first major test, with the Iranian nuclear program following close behind it. Now is the time for Turkey to either prove it can shine or accept that it is not quite ready to claim being a great power just yet.
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Foreign Affairs

Bye Bye to the Big Bunga

Italian Prime Minister Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi announced today that he will be resigning his post after his parliament votes on austerity measures that the European Union is trying to force upon the country. This follows the resignation last week of Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, who stepped down after threatening a referendum that has since been cancelled. The Eurozone Crisis has claimed its biggest victim in toppling Berlusconi, who has a penchant for clinging to power despite corruption and scandal being synonymous with his name. For seventeen years he has dominated politics in Italy, surviving scandals that would doom any other leader in the Western world---sex with underage prostitutes, orgies at his mansions, constant corruption trials, public feuding with his wife in the newspapers, close ties with Gaddafi, even the loss of popular support. Though Italians hate the man, they have often been at a loss for words when asked, "If not Berlusconi, then who?" The fact that he ruled from the conservative party was even more of a bulwark--the Italians are so terrified of giving the Italian Left a chance to govern that they would rather put up with Berlusconi's antics than pass the baton.

In the end, though, the poison spreading through Europe's troubled economies are what did him in. Turmoil in the markets, an absolutely astronomical amount of debt in Italy, and pressure by the other leaders of the European Union have finally ended Berlusconi's time in power. For weeks now, Berlusconi had been seen as one of the largest obstacles towards saving the Euro due to his lackluster support for economic reforms, losing control of his coalition, and a seemingly uncaring, combative attitude in dealing with both rival Italian politicians and fellow European heads of state. He was seen as so much of an obstacle that markets actually have started to pick up a bit on the news of his imminent departure. (Update: Reverse that; Italian bond yields are flying up to unsustainable levels. Not looking good).

The question of who will replace Berlusconi is a much more difficult one to gauge. President Giorgio Napolitano may step in, but the 86-year-old former communist may not be up for taking control of the government during such a crisis; Napolitano will probably play the role of kingmaker. Gianni Letta, Berlusconi's deputy and the one most likely to take charge of the center-right coalition currently governing Italy, is another option--but his closeness to the Bunga may be harmful. The young Angelino Alfano has often been seen as an heir to Berlusconi, but, again, the 41-year-old may be toxic right now due to his relations with his boss. However, Alfano has the backing of Umberto Bossi, leader of the Northern League and a man integral to any center-right coalition that will form in parliament. Other possibilities are technocratic economist Mario Monti or centrist politician Pier Casini, the latter of which is calling for a broad unity government. I personally think that Alfano may be able to pull together enough support if he can talk in Letta to back him. The rest of the year is certainly going to be interesting in Italy, and whoever takes charge will have a profound impact on whether or not the European Union can weather the Eurozone Crisis.
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Foreign Affairs

Sink the European Stability Union

On November 1, 1993, the Maastricht Treaty entered into force, creating the European Union. The treaty faced a tumultuous start as it failed its first Danish referendum, squeaked by with a victory in a French referendum by just one percent, and almost saw the British Parliament overthrow the government of John Major. Denmark and the United Kingdom were pacified by provisions exempting them from certain aspects of the treaty. Eighteen years later, the path towards ever-closer Union has been completely derailed, the news of the day filled by the possibility that, come January, the European Union will be on the road to disintegration--at least in the form that we currently know.

In an effort to avoid the fate of the former Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen, who was thrown out of office one year ago with the lowest approval ratings in Irish history after forcing a European bailout on his countrymen, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou made a startling announcement that he would be putting the terms of the European Union's Greek bailout, decided at a summit of European leaders last week, to a popular referendum. Recent polls indicate that the bailout is massively unpopular among the Greeks, and unless Papandreou has some trick up his sleeve, the vote in January will be to oppose the bailout. This means that Greece will default and suffer economic collapse, the contagion poisoning what is left of European stability. It will also be the likely first step towards Greece's departure from the Euro currency; perhaps the first of several departures. It will be economic chaos that could very well thrust the world back into a large recession. While that consequence is undesirable, I contend that this is better for Europe in the long-run.

My reasoning for this is that the European Union's leadership went too far last week in assaulting the sovereignty of the people of Europe. Despite the efforts of the German Bundestag and the British House of Commons against it, the "stability union" was approved after Chancellor Merkel's warnings of war in Europe should it fail. This union permits to the European Union the power to approve or disapprove the budgets of member-states--that is, to control the taxation and spending policies of individual nations. In effect, this means that the governments of individual states are no longer answerable to their people on one of their most fundamental reasons for existence: decisions on taxation and spending. With this new "stability union" the power over fiscal policy now belongs to centralized bureaucrats in Brussels, not Europe's national leaders. This cannot be. Though the economic consequences could be terrible for the whole world, Greece is right to challenge this. The popular tide in Europe has always been opposed to the elite-driven experiment in union, and now Europe's oligarchs have gone a step too far. Damn the torpedoes. 
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Foreign Affairs

Can Palestine Take Down the UN?

In their continued bid to walk around peace talks and claim statehood by recognition in the United Nations, Palestine today won a victory by being accepted into UNESCO as a full member, 107 nations voting in favor and 14 voting against, with 52 abstaining. The United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization receives 22% of its annual budget from the United States and 3% of its annual budget from Israel. Federal law made in 1990 and 1994 mandates that the United States stop financing any part of the United Nations that accepts Palestinians as full members, and the Department of State has confirmed that there is no leeway in the legislation, no matter how much President Obama likes UNESCO--it is going to lose one quarter of its funding, starting now, and will subsequently have to begin laying off staff and shutting down offices around the world unless other nations move to help cover the expenses.

The vote also revealed more fully to us which countries are siding where. Voting alongside the United States and Israel at UNESCO were nations like Germany, Canada, Australia, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Opposing us were France and Belgium, and then the expected votes of China, Russia, India, Brazil, and the vast majority of Africa and the Middle East. Most of Western civilization abstained from voting, including Britain, Japan, Italy, and Poland; while Latvia and Romania abstained, they initially voted against Palestine in executive committee.

Bolstered by this move, Palestine will continue to go around to various United Nations organizations and seek full membership. This action by the Palestinians comes at a time when Americans are even more skeptical of the United Nations and foreign entanglements than usual, and when our politicians are looking for any way to trim things out of the budget--with unpopular foreign aid (however small a part of our budget it may actually be) being a popular thing to add to the chopping block. As the primary source of funding for the United Nations, the United States could potentially start gutting the international organization if Palestine continues to be successful in this bid for statehood. It will be interesting to see how President Obama will straddle the line between his love for the United Nations and the combination of federal law, American support for Israel, and security in the Middle East forcing him to defund various parts of the United Nations. While I have a feeling he's just itching to sign waivers exempting the United Nations from the law, the political reality of already being an unpopular president going into a reelection year will probably compel him not to come across as joining nations like Russia and Iran in supporting Palestine over Israel.
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Political Philosophy

I Am Number . . .

4,196,949,605 of 7 billion people on earth.

I am the 78,636,613,080th person to have lived since history began.  

The historic milestone cannot but bring to mind the global hysteria of the "population bomb," a liberal fallacy which led to the international community's willful complicity in global programs of sterilization, abortion and human-rights abuses. The UN Population Fund is a remnant of this shameful history and exists now as little more than an international lobby for the abortion industry which identifies the Catholic Church as a greater enemy to "reproductive rights" than China.

Of course, the lie of overpopulation was always a mere means to the end of liberal globalization: the liberal control of international organizations capable of stealing sovereignty from the nations (and thus people) of the world. Liberal globalization would achieve by stealth and trickery what the greatest imperialists and conquerors in history had failed to achieve by force. Their weapon was fear and their delivery mechanism was "undisputed science" which captured the world's population in a stupor of ignorance.

Of course, rational minds prevailed. The Catholic Church was foremost in the resistance to these immoral policies and authoritarian tactics. Conservatives likewise opposed the radicalism of population control. They were vindicated as being on the side of science and rationalism.

Of course, the media largely failed to notice any of this. Partially, they didn't wish to expose their own complicity. But more importantly, they were already chanting the next cadence of liberal globalization. Global cooling was next, followed by global warming and now climate change. The entire environmental movement, with its need to regulate all life on the planet at the international level, serves this goal. Internationalism - be it law, politics, diplomacy or economics - has long been dominated by the left. They have recognized since the "population bomb" days that the last battlefield is global in breadth and that internationalism is the strategic high ground.

Their climate and environmental alarms will likely herald nothing more frieghtening than the overpopulation scare - and the damage inflicted on the world will be relative to the successes of such policies. Right-minded people have and will continue to oppose their secret war of oppression, but today is, more than anything, a reminder of the radical left's grand strategy.

Foreign Affairs

The Complicated Euro Crisis

This is probably the best headline on the collapsing Eurozone that I've yet to see, courtesy of the United Kingdom's The Telegraph: Euro armageddon is approaching, but it's too boring and complicated to explain.

Previously, it was relatively easy to explain: Greece is bankrupt and we don't know what to do about it. But then we bailed Greece out and it's still not over. Now it's something along the lines of: Greece is bankrupt, but then French and German banks own Greek debt, so they might be bankrupt too. Then Italy has lots of its own debt, which Germany would like it to pay off, just in case that markets start worrying that Italy is bankrupt too.

And that's before we even get into the the proposed solution (mostly it seems to be that Germany should throw money at everything, which the Germans understandably aren't too keen on). How big does the bailout fund need to be? Who pays for it? Who do we (well, the Germans) bail out: the Greeks, or the banks? Should the European Central Bank be allowed to buy government bonds? No one is sure of any of this. Not even the people whose job it is to understand it.

As Europe descends further into chaos, it appears more and more likely that the 27 sovereign states that make up the European Union are not going to be able to reach an adequate agreement to save the Eurozone from collapse (though the Greeks may have a plan!). German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy, British Prime Minister Cameron, and especially Italian Premier Berlusconi are increasingly unable to work with each other, and the German Chancellor went so far as to raise the specter of war in Europe should the Euro collapse (the warning was soon followed by the passage of a $1 trillion spending deal). It's all quite a mess.
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Foreign Affairs

Libyan Intervention Still Illegal

As President Obama continues to gloat over "success" in Libya and the countries of Europe pat themselves on the back for the demise of the Gaddafi regime, Americans in general and Congress in particular ought not to forget the fact that the President of the United States engaged in the killing of foreign citizens and a forced regime change without any type of authorization or legal justification for the attack. The "success" of the mission (as for it really being a success or not... we'll see) does not justify it; ends do not justify means. Just because Congress has, in a fit of absentmanliness, neglected its sworn duties to uphold the Constitution in this matter does not mean that the President acted legally.

The President has yet to give a legal justification for the intervention. With no Congressional declaration of war or authorization of the use of force, all we have to go on is existing precedents. The two that spring to mind immediately are the War Powers Resolution, which President Obama openly defied by declaring the blowing up of foreign nationals did not count as "hostilities", and the Authorization of the Use of Military Force following 9/11, which also did not apply as Libya posed no threat to the United States and was not involved with the terrorist attacks on our nation ten years ago. Even the use of an Executive Order to authorize this military action is an illegitimate response, as the 1952 Supreme Court case Youngstown Sheet & Tub Co. v. Sawyer clearly sets forth that executive orders are invalid if they attempt to make law (and, constitutionally, going to war is done through law passed by Congress), rather than simply clarifying or acting to further a law already put forth by Congress or the Constitution.

The argument for the United Nations Resolution granting him this authority is equally specious for several reasons, the most blatant being that our military does not serve at the direction of an international organization, especially one in which nations like Russia and China maintain equal authority with us. The United Nations charter does not grant the organization the power to force regime change outside of in the interests of collective security--Gaddafi posed no threat to the collective security of U.N. members. What supporters of the Administration have leaned on most is the Responsibility to Protect doctrine endorsed by the General Assembly a few years ago. This was merely endorsed by a vote of the United Nations though, and never ratified as a treaty--meaning that it is neither international law nor Senate-sanctioned U.S. law, and therefore cannot serve as a legal justification for our intervention in Libya. Obligations to NATO are also irrelevant as an argument as NATO is a defensive alliance.

I am happy that Moammar Gaddafi is gone. He was a vile man responsible for brutalizing his citizens and for committing acts of terrorism against the United States and other countries. I hope that the Libyan people are able to embrace democratic reform and a respect for human rights. None of this, though, excuses our President from the law. As difficult as it is for us to deal with long, messy things like legality and the Constitution while atrocities are being committed elsewhere, they must be dealt with. The War Powers Resolution, though no where near perfect and certainly in need of a replacement solution, granted the President some leeway to respond to something immediately--sixty days with which to gain the consent of his coequal branch in government, Congress. The legislature, for its part, just rolled over, and the courts have thrown out lawsuits from those few members of Congress who refused to cave to the Executive Branch on this serious breach of power. It is during times of pain and chaos when we are most likely to disregard the law--which is why it is even more important that we, as Americans, fight even harder during these times to show the world that even in the face of deadly adversity, the rule of law can continue to preside over man. Remembering this is essential to our experiment in self-government.
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Foreign Affairs

Repelling Europe's Advances

Last night, the House came together in a rare moment of bi-partisanship and patriotic unity by firmly and unequivocally telling the European Union what they can do with the new environmental laws they've decided to pass on the United States. Apparently, the EU forgot that they don't actually have the authority to regulate non-EU countries which have decided to retain their full sovereignty.

The EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS) has said that, starting next year, it will charge U.S. aircraft for carbon emissions whenever they land or take off in Europe.

The House responded decisively.

The lower chamber approved H.R. 2594 by unanimous consent after a brief debate in which most Republicans and Democrats said they reject the ETS as an extra-territorial plan to fine American aircraft that was imposed without any input from the U.S.

Of course, a few Democrats [surprise: Massachusetts and California Democrats] couldn't help but oppose U.S. sovereignty and economic interests in support of hysterical environmentalism and ever-expanding internationalism. But that's to be expected from the far left. The EU "tax grab" is estimated to cost 78,500 American jobs if implemented - a small price for the accomplishment of foisting EU-style climate-change legislation on the U.S. 

Then again, many in the bi-partisan majority were likely scrambling to save 78,000 jobs rather than standing on principle in their vote. Multi-national regulations aren't a simple matter to unravel - they depend on government-ratified treaties and indecipherable bilateral agreements. But the EU seems to have neglected that multi-national regulations require multiple nations. Eurocrats have become a bit drunk on their heady draught of super-national supremacy in the EU. One hopes the U.S. continues to have the fortitude to check their untoward advanced.

If this is a case of European over-reach, as I expect, the U.S. should fight fire with fire. If the Europeans turn out to be within their authority, leadership will be required to revisit the license granted to foreign nations in our treaty agreements.

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Foreign Affairs

The Mad Dog is Dead

With his final stronghold in Libya falling to rebel forces, long-time dictator Moammar Gaddafi has been killed. There are a great many conflicting reports as to the details of his death and confusion as to how it happened, but at the moment the most-reported story is that he was found in a hole shortly after a firefight and either died of wounds suffered during the shooting or was shot shortly after being captured. The tyrant met a tyrant's death. It is good that he is gone and that he will no longer be able to menace his people. Now it falls on the Libyan people to use their newfound freedom from Gaddafi in order to right his wrongs and bring peace, stability, and a respect for human rights to their nation. I doubt that the civil war is completely over--Gaddafi's tribe and family are still antagonistic to the new government--but the worst of it is probably over, and now the political fight begins. As Libya struggles to rebuild itself after decades of tyranny and months of war, Congress would do well to keep a check on any desire on the part of President Obama to send in advisors or peacekeepers, should such a desire arise. Good luck to the Libyan people, and good riddance to Gaddafi.
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