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Political Wrap

Richard Reeves claims that Hillary and her advisors will meet on September 6th talk the whole thing through and make a decision regarding 2004. Retired General Wesley Clark will make a decision within two weeks, but this report says that, according to some friends, he has already decided. Amy Sullivan, a Democrat, has a longish essay explaining how Clark can still win the Democratic primary. The latest Zogby Poll of likely New Hampshire voters reveals that Howard Dean is now leading John Kerry 38% to 17%. Dean is also raising a lot more money than most people thought he would; so much that he is considering not accepting federal matching funds. David Lambro reflects on why Kerry is getting that sinking feeling. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kerry ended up not running; this is not a guy who could re-group after a defeat; there is a lot of self-esteem at stake for him. In the meantime, The Weekly Standard brushes off General Clark as another slick guy from Arkansas. But, in case you have forgotten about him, the word two weeks ago was that John Edwards is also on the edge; if it’s do or die time for him as well, he will die. The Birmingham Post-Herald reports (three clicks down) that support for Bush’s Iraq policy is slipping even in the South. Here is President Bush’s speech to the American Legion Convention in St. Louis.

Discussions - 1 Comment

Ach... another one of THOSE polls. Check how the poll question was worded:

"What do you think?
A total of 1,048 adult residents were asked: "As you know, the United States sent troops into Iraq to force it to disarm its weapons of mass destruction. Are you absolutely certain, pretty certain or not certain that this was the correct thing to do?" Here are the percentages of those who said they were "not certain":

First, and most obviously, the pollsters adopt, and assert as undebatable ("[a]s you know"), an extremely narrow version of American war aims. In addition to betraying the pollsters’ incompetence, the clumsiness of the language - "to force it to disarm its weapons of mass destruction" - contributes further to a sense of uncertainty about the entire proposition. Since the question then requires the respondent to judge his or her own level of certainty, a set of responses skewed to the negative is virtually pre-ordained. The results are then spun in exactly the direction that the pollsters appear to have been looking for.

I hate that kind of thing. I could have filled a blog this last year just while examining bad polls.

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