Steve Hayward has it right. McClintock will not get out, nor should he. For two reasons. 1st, as I wrote several weeks ago, if there is a Republican spoiler in this race, it is Schwarzenneger and the anti-principled Wilson machine backing him. Several polls--those that are public and even those that were privately commissioned by Schwarzenneger backers such as the Lincoln Club of Orange County for the express purpose of getting evidence that would force McClintock to withdraw--have both McClintock and Schwarzenneger beating Bustamante in head to head competitions. The fight, then, is not between prudence and principle, siding with someone who can win (but is bad on principle) or siding with someone who is good on principle (but can’t win). The fight, rather, is whether we win on the principled ground or win on the unprincipled ground.
Second, we’ll be glad that McClintock is still in the race after Bob Mulholland unleashes the Schwarzenneger scandals ads this week. If too many people have already voted for Arnold via absentee to cost McClintock the election as the only viable alternative to the Davis/Bustamante machine, it will be the fault of those who coronated Arnold early in the process, without considering his positions, the views of the voters, or Arnold’s utter lack of commitment to Republican principles (even his anti-tax campaign ads are contradicted by his ads, concurrently running, claiming that we need to raise taxes on Indian tribes!).
There are two ways for Republicans to win in this state. One is the Wilson way; by into enough of the left’s program to win over some center-left voters. The other is Reagan’s: Stand on principle; appeal to those who agree with the principle, particularly those who have not traditionally been affiliated with the Republican party--blue collar democrats for Reagan, conservative Hispanic Catholics now. With the voter animus against Davis, we had a historic opportunity to take the principled route, and our party establishment here has squandered it. Hurrary for Tom McClintock for not selling us down the river. Hurray for Bruce Herschensohn, Howard Ahmanson, and others for launching the independent expenditures cmapaign this week supporting McClintock.
"...if there is a Republican spoiler in this race, it is Schwarzenneger and the anti-principled Wilson machine backing him. Several polls...have both McClintock and Schwarzenneger beating Bustamante in head to head competitions."
Even assuming that those polls you refer to can be taken seriously as snapshots of opinion at one or another point in the race, what makes you so sure that, if Arnold had never gotten in, some readier-for-prime-time D than Cruz wouldn’t have taken a shot?
And what are the chances that the other Rs wouldn’t have felt such a need to bow out if Tom was their only competition this side of the center-left?
And what are the chances that, without a high-profile, attention-getting, moderate R like Arnold in the race, Davis and the rest of the interest-group machine wouldn’t have been trashing Tom or whatever other "principled" R before the liberal-leaning California electorate as anti-EVERYTHING they care about?
Even if Davis didn’t save his own political butt by such means, and even if Tom or whoever eked out a plurality victory, what are the chances he’d be able to act as a strong governor?
It’s nice to dream about Reagan, but Tom, for all of his virtues, is no Reagan, and if you’re going to wait for another Reagan to rescue us, you may also have to sit around and watch California turn into France first.
Unlike some of the other commenters and post-ers here, I’m not going to pretend I know what the future holds. Assuming the CNN-Gallup numbers are real, and that they hold, more or less, I don’t know whether Arnold will betray us or maybe just screw up. I don’t think he will, but I’ll certainly acknowledge the chances. Yet I also think the improving economy will put the wind at his back, and may make certain decisions a lot easier than they look right now, and I think that if Arnold wins by a wide margin, and the recall passes by a wide margin, and his votes plus Tom’s are well more than 50% - all of which seems quite possible - then Arnold’ll be the first governor we’ve had in ages with a mandate to implement a positive, business-friendly, anti-interest group vision. And I don’t think he’ll get within a country mile of the social issues unless forced - and, if he is, it’ll be much more likely on immigration-related issues than on choice, gay rights, or anything else that would be likely to inspire a rebellion somewhere, and that would have nothing to do with what he’s run on.
Like I said, I don’t claim to know, but there’s a chance at least that, if Arnold succeeds, we may finally be able to start bringing some sanity and at least some balance back to this state’s politics. If a centrist or center-right R government under a charismatic celebrity like Arnold succeeds, it could change the state and affect the entire country for the better. Maybe sometime in the future, there will even be a chance for someone like Tom to win in California rather than to go down pitifully if righteously in flames.
"If a centrist or center-right R government"
In order to have a "centrist or center-right R government" requires a a "centrist or center-right R" governor. "Conan, the Barbarian" doesn’t qualify as such. Should he be elected, when he becomes stymied by a policy question, he will seek advise from his Uncle Teddy, for form a solution. When someone’s first reaction after he decides to run for political office is to "reach out" for a die-hard leftist like Warren Buffet, you can bet that "someone" is not a "centrist", much less "center-right".
Another dead give-away that you are dealing with a Euro-socialist is when the ONLY political thing he has accomplished is the promotion of a ballot "initiative" that forces a cash-starved California State government to spend more money it doesn’t have on another "Nanny State" socialist program. The "Terminator" hasn’t seen a socialist State program he doesn’t like. In fact, he admitted that he sees the reason the State of California need more revenue is so it can fund "needed State programs". He is pro-gun control, pro-same-sex marriage, pro-abortion, and pro-big government. The wing of the Rebulican Party he would be most comfortable with is headed by "Jumpin’" Jim Jeffords.
The most amusing thing on this evenings Network News was watching the California Democrats start acting like the California GOP, as they too began to "eat their young". Poor Cruz has fallen "overboard" and is floundering because he has spent the "illegal" contributions he has collected (a Democrat trademark, BTW), and the California Democrats, along with the DNC have just thrown him an anchor.