I am reminding you of the prediction I made yesterday on the California recall election. I still hold to it. In short: Davis loses the recall by circa 20-25 points! "Yes" will be about 60-63%, and "no" will be 37%, no higher than 40%! Arnold will win with circa 40-45%, Bustamante will get around 28% and McClintock will get 15%. I know that I could put up some safer numbers, but that would be no fun now, would it? Daniel Weintraub has a few good paragraphs explaining why the polls may well underestimate Arnold’s percentage. He says that perhaps ten percent of the people who will vote "no" on the recall will not vote on the second part of the ballot. That would be an amazing advantage for Arnold. Anyway, I’m going with my hand. I’m not folding. I’m right. I’ve put a few bucks aside for the lunch bets that I’ve already made....I’ll take all takers on this. Bet me, I dare you.
An irresistable footnote to all this; a sort of poetic rendition of the truth. A San Francisco paper reports on the campaign, and in the middle of the story, there is an aside about a woman who pulls out a bumber sticker that reads: "I’d rather be groped by Arnold than screwed by Gray Davis."