Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

More Predictions

I can’t let Schramm and Hayward have all the fun. Mind you, I am writing later than they did, but I have yet to see any exit polls. I predict that turnout will be high, about 62%. Davis will be recalled by a "Yes" vote of around 58-59%. And Arnold will terminate all-comers, finishing with a comfortable 5-7 point margin on his next closest rival, putting him at 44-45%.

As for the legal challenges, you can count on them, but the margin of victory will make them all but impossible. If Arnold pulls out a 5 point margin of victory, that would translate into a victory margin of about 700,000 votes. Even the wildest punchcard claims don’t suggest that they could pull 700,000 votes out of their hats if given the chance by the courts. And keep in mind that the California Supreme Court was actually fairly reasonable (they refused to even hear the silly punchcard claim). No one can count on the Ninth Circuit to be reasonable, but once again, a large margin of victory pretty much takes it out of their hands. So Arnold will win, and the court challenges will be swept away quickly.

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