Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

The Iowa surprise

I guess almost everyone (save Bill Kristol and a few others) was wrong about Iowa. I turns out I was dead wrong in thinking that Gephardt would win (although I was right about Dean peaking much too early). I thought that Gephard’s organization would pull it out in the end. It turns out that organization in Iowa this time around was not the major factor. Jeff Sikkenga (just below) has some good comments on all this, as does Andy Busch at Ashbrook. Take a look at both.

My immediate opinion is this: First, as Andy Busch states, it is possible that Dean will now sink without a trace. I think it is probable for two reasons a) his temperament--which Andy only politely alludes to--is now in question (did you see his horrid performance on stage to his supporters?) Weird. Off point entirely, the man was screaming when a few thoughtful words would have done the trick. And b) the victory and Kerry and Edward’s great numbers indicate to me that the extreme attack by Dean on Bush’s Iraq war may not be as well received as many have thought. Second, it would seem to me that Clark is no longer as well positioned as I thought he would be. If someone other than Dean wins New Hamshire, Clark will have to have a very strong showing in South Carolina in order to get anywhere. Three, I am satisfied with this result. It shows that people (Democrats in this case) are both not as predictable as everyone in the media would like them to be, and not as extreme as many have thought. The so-called angry mood out there may be a myth. Good.

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Howard Dean piqued too soon.

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