American Research Group tracking poll shows that Clark has moved into second place in New Hampshire, dropping Kerry to third, and Dean’s lead has dropped by a few points. I am not saying that anything important is happening just yet, although I would keep my eye on things. Two things to watch for: First, as it becomes clearer that the main competition for Dean is Clark, watch the not yet commited Demo voters (about a third or more) to start shifting mostly to Dean or Clark. I am betting that most will shift toward Clark. Second, as it become clear (after Iowa, but especially after New Hampshire) that it has to be a two man race, watch for the supporters of Libermann, et al, to shift to the two front runners. I am betting that most of these voters will shift toward Clark. The only thing to effect this would be if Gephardt takes Iowa, which is still possible. But if that happens than the anti-Dean movement in New Hampshire will shift toward Clark (oddly) rather than Gephardt. David Broder implies that the longer the race is the more likely it is that Dean will lose. It’s not clear that the nomination will come before detonation.
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