This Pew Poll says that Bush’s job approval rating is down to 48%. His personal popularity rating was 73% after the fall of Baghdad. It is now 53%.
Also note that more and more people polled are using the word "liar" to describe him. Although I do not see this as standing for long, it is of concern because--in the end--his re-election will be based on trust. Once Bush gets into the game (and I am not yet arguing that he should; he should wait) these numbers will change, to his advantage. And, of course, the numbers will be moved by events in Iraq and elsewhere. We should be prepared to be surprised. Also note the good news the poll has for Kerry (for now). He is described as "honest."